A woman reacts as she walks in front of flattened buildings that were targeted by Israeli air raids in central Beirut. At least 22 people were killed and 117 others were wounded,
A woman reacts as she walks in front of flattened buildings that were targeted by Israeli air raids in central Beirut. At least 22 people were killed and 117 others were wounded in Beirut, Lebanon. Oct. 10 Marwan Naamani/ZUMA

-Analysis-

PARIS — Like all wars, this one began with operations described as “limited.” Two weeks later, there are already no more limits: Israel has sent some 15,000 ground troops to Lebanon, its bombing raids cover around a quarter of Lebanese territory, villagers living up to 60 km from the border have been ordered to evacuate, and 1 million Lebanese — 1 in 5 — are displaced by the war, according to the UN.

For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.

How far will Israel go, and above all what are its war aims? Part of the answer is clear: Israel wants to destroy as much as possible the military capabilities of Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian movement that has sown insecurity in northern Israel in solidarity with Hamas after Oct. 7.

Hezbollah has lost its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and a large number of its operatives, and Israel has disorganized and weakened a militia that was more powerful than the Lebanese national army.

An ulterior motive? 

But that is clearly not the only aim. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week called on the Lebanese to rise up against Hezbollah. Otherwise, Israel will wage a war that will lead to “destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza,” he said. At least that is brutally clear.

This means that Israel’s objectives are not solely military, linked to the security of the north. By calling on the Lebanese to rise up against Hezbollah, Netanyahu wants to bring about the emergence of “another Lebanon,” in which the pro-Iranian movement will not have the major role it has had until now.

The Lebanese are not turning to Israel to “liberate” them by bombing them.

Does he really believe it? For years, many Lebanese have denounced the role Hezbollah plays in Lebanon’s political stalemate and its responsibility for some of the country’s worst events, including political assassinations, such as that of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, and the 2020 Beirut port explosion.

But for all that, the Lebanese are not turning to Israel to “liberate” them by bombing them, any more than they are placing the slightest hope in the Lebanese political class, which has already demonstrated its ineptitude.

Israel Prime Minister BENYAMIN NETANYAHU face being underfooted by demonstrant. Thousands of muslims held demonstration at US Embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia. The demonstration demanding USA to stop supporting Israel in Genocide that happening in Gaza that took one year already,
Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu’s image at a demonstration at US Embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia, October 6, 2024 – Donal Husni/ZUMA

A headlong rush

Netanyahu is undoubtedly taking an even broader view of the reshaping of the Middle East, which also includes Iran. Israel is preparing to launch strikes against Iran, with the risk of dragging the whole region into an all-out war.

The United States is letting it happen, even though it is trying to influence Israel’s choice of targets. The Europeans are calling for a ceasefire, but nobody is listening. Netanyahu is therefore free to continue his wars, and he has the Israelis behind him against Hezbollah and Iran.

These wars on several fronts at once seem like a headlong rush, as previous attempts to reshape even one country through war have ended badly, including in modestly sized Lebanon.

Much of Israel is observing Yom Kippur, the day of atonement. And the mood is grim for everyone living in a region that is facing dramatic escalation, in which moderate voices, where they exist, are drowned out by the noise of weapons.