-Analysis-
AMMAN — Jordan’s leadership is holding its breath for the return of Donald Trump to the White House.
The former and future U.S. president has pledged to “end” the wars around the world, including the conflicts burning in the Middle East, a region mired in conflicts since the establishment of Israel in 1948.
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No one yet knows what kind of deal Trump is cooking up. But there are concerns over Trump’s way of working as a businessman who imposes contractual deals — sometimes by force or negotiation — in favor of the strong and at the expense of the weak. For the strong parties in this part of the world are Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and perhaps Egypt. Much weaker are Jordan and the Palestinian Authority.
Jordan’s redlines
During Trump’s first term, both Jordan and the Palestinian Authority confronted the “Deal of the Century,” which the U.S. president tried to impose on the region. He favored economic solutions and Arab normalization with Israel, over working to establish an independent Palestinian state that lives alongside Israel.
Trump also tried to undermine the strategy that Jordan had bet on for more than two decades, to protect itself from the risk of transferring the Palestinians from the occupied West Bank to Jordan’s territories.
At that time, Jordanian King Abdullah II set three redlines: no settlement in Jordan; no displacement; and no touching Jordan’s historical role in Jerusalem to protect Muslim and Christian holy sites. Jordanian officials also announced that any transfer towards Jordan would be classified as a declaration of war.
Personal relations between Abdullah and Trump are good.
These redlines, which aimed to protect Jordanian and Palestinian rights, helped ease tensions in Jordan.
With this position, Jordan didn’t attend economic and water cooperation conferences between Israel and the Gulf countries, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which rushed to strike peace deals with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords, which also included Morocco.
The working relationship between Abdullah and Trump has been severely affected during this period. Yet officials affirmed that personal relations between the two men are good. Trump’s daughter Ivanka and her husband, Jared Kushner, the godfather of the peace and normalization process in the region, attended the wedding of Jordanian Crown Prince Hussein last summer.
Netanyahu’s agenda
An American political analyst close to the Republican Party said the new Trump administration will downplay Jordan’s strategic importance to the United States. Trump will proceed with the regional peace project through developing an Arab-Israeli alliance based on the UAE and Saudi Arabia. And he will be more cautious about the Israeli aggression on Gaza and Lebanon, which affect the Jordanian domestic scene, the analyst said.
It is clear that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to seize the opportunity of his ally Trump’s return to the White House to implement his expansionist projects, exploiting the war on Gaza and Lebanon, which has greatly weakened the influence of Hamas and Hezbollah in the Iranian-backed Axis of Resistance.
Trump will not stop Netanyahu’s plan.
It’s the right time for Netanyahu to impose his right-wing expansionist agenda: deporting Palestinians to Egypt and annexing the Gaza Strip; deporting Palestinians of the West Bank and Jerusalem to Jordan; and annexing what remains of the West Bank.Any transfer of Palestinians to Jordan will have repercussions on Jordan’s two main demographic components: Jordanians of Palestinian origin and East Jordanians who are the traditional backbone of the Hashemite throne. Any discord between the two components will serve the settlement option or may cause popular unrest.
Trump will not stop Netanyahu’s plan. His position was clear after their meeting in Florida four months ago, in a blatant challenge to the Biden administration.
Days after the meeting, Trump announced that Israel’s area is small on the map, and he must think about how to expand it. But he did not specify how, when, and where it will expand.
Jordan’s concerns
Here is the crux of the new deal that poses a threat to Jordanian national security: Israel is likely to implement a forced displacement of Palestinians as a first step from Area C to Area B and then to Area A, with the aim of creating demographic and economic pressure on the infrastructure of the areas under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
This step will lead to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority and push Palestinians to leave towards Jordan as a voluntary migration, according to an official familiar.
Israel may use strict laws that allow the deportation of the families of young men who participated in operations against Israel. There are about 250,000 citizens who hold permanent Jordanian passports and live in the Palestinian territories, and Jordan will not be able to legally abandon them if they decide to cross into the Kingdom due to Israeli pressure.
“I believe that Trump will insist on his plan and try to expand the circle of normalizers to include Qatar, Kuwait, the Sultanate of Oman and other Arab countries, to join a new Middle East based on economic peace and development, but tailored to Trump and Netanyahu,” said a Jordanian official.
“What is happening is reminiscent of a play where the producer and director are one, and any actor in the region who deviates from the script is disciplined,” he said.
This may explain the change Netanyahu made on the eve of the U.S. elections, when he fired Defense Minister Yoav Galant and replaced him with Israel Katz. He also appointed Gideon Sa’ar as Foreign Minister. The reshuffle has ensured the stability of Netanyahu’s government until the end of its term in late 2026, and enabled him to manage the war on Gaza and Lebanon without opposition.
Jordan’s limited options
Faced with difficult choices, the Jordanian decision-maker works quietly to absorb their dimensions, reposition himself politically, and build new strategies and alliances that will enable the kingdom to bend to the political storm during Trump’s four years, to survive it with the least possible damage.
“Jordan’s ability, both as a king and a people, to adapt quickly is at stake,” said another Jordanian official. “Positive engagement in all files is essential to protect Jordan’s vital interests.”
“Those who are not sitting at the table will not know the menu of meals being prepared,” said the official, speaking to Daraj on condition of anonymity.
Adaptation requires fortifying the home front with new approaches, separating the overlap of the three powers, changing the contradictory official and popular discourse towards America and Israel. It also requires a new regional coordination based on more balanced relations with the Arab environment, and exploiting the European Union and a large number of countries around the world standing by Jordan.
Prince Mohammed has a good relationship with his Jordanian counterpart, Prince Hussein.
Jordan is working to further warm ties with Saudi Arabia, which will soon become a pilgrimage destination for all Arab leaders, due to the strong relations between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Trump.
The king has tried hard to get closer to bring Mohammed in line with the kingdom’s traditional position, but the relationship has not developed for several reasons: The chemistry is missing, and there is concern about Saudi ambitions in the Jerusalem file and the possibility of internationalizing the responsibility for managing Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem.
Yet Prince Mohammed has a good relationship with his Jordanian counterpart, Prince Hussein, who recently visited him with the king. Jordan can count on Saudi Arabia to protect its back.
According to Arab and foreign diplomats, Saudi Arabia will not sign a peace treaty with Israel, as was the case before the war on Gaza. After the war, it linked any engagement to the establishment of a Palestinian state and the end of aggression on the Strip. Jordan turned to the UAE because it is the only Gulf state that provides financial support to the Jordanian budget.
Future meetings, renewed power
Abdullah was among the first Arab leaders to contact Trump to congratulate him for his election. Both leaders are likely to meet in the near future.
Jordanians may need to give the king some room to maneuver comfortably in a new Middle East without being subject to doubt, said a former official. Opening the door to good dealings with the U.S. State Department may require the king to sacrifice his Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, who issued fiery statements regarding the war in Gaza and Lebanon.
Today, Trump is stronger.
In his first term, Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, disregarding all international resolutions regarding the status of the holy city. In 2019, he recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights.
Today, Trump is stronger. He will begin his second term with a landslide victory, a majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives. The effects of this mandate will be felt everywhere.
