Haifa And Beyond — How Hezbollah Will Respond To Israel’s Onslaught

-Analysis-

CAIRO — Israel’s war has now moved to a new phase, with the new center of gravity shifting to its northern front. It began last week when Israel launched a cyber attack on Lebanon, blowing up pagers and walkie-talkies that Hezbollah members were carrying.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had declared that the return of the residents of the north was now a primary goal of the war; Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, meanwhile, challenged him to try.

But it appears that the full-fledged war has been already ignited, well beyond the back-and-forth of the past 11 months. Israel launched massive attacks this week in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, which killed at least 560 people in Lebanon and forced thousands to seek refuge.

But the Israeli government has also declared a state of emergency across the country, and Hezbollah fired toward northern Israel and the coastal city of Haifa with rockets. And on Wednesday, the Shiite militants say they fired a ballistic missile targeting the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv, its deepest missile attack so far in the conflict.

Long wars

Even if the cyberwar ignited the confrontation and pushed it into a full-fledged war, reviving memories of the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.

But this round of war could prove different and more brutal since Israel seeks a wider battle, and has now shown it no longer avoids long wars at all costs. Its ongoing aggression in Gaza is approaching its first anniversary.

Hezbollah is expanding its range.

Israel’s attacks are no longer limited to southern Lebanon. But it extended to Beirut such as the strikes that targeted Hezbollah leader Ali Karaki, which followed the killing of another leader, Ibrahim Aqil, in a strike in Beirut.

In return, Hezbollah is now expanding its target range. It did not limit its responses to northern Israel, implementing its strategy of targeting the Israeli depth.

Hezbollah missiles reached Haifa, the coastal city, and targeted the Ramat David Air Base, military industries complexes, and the Megiddo military airport.

Hezbollah has begun to use the phase of “Haifa and beyond Haifa,” to describe its objectives deep inside Israel.

Fallout from pager strike

Despite Hezbollah’s attempts to escalate deep inside Israel, the party that raised the banner of victory in the 2006 war may find itself facing a three-dimensional crisis this time.

The first challenge stems from the crisis of communication and control systems. At a critical time, a large part of the communication and control system, which is important for the movement of any forces in battle, was struck by the pager and walkie-talkie attacks.

This has doubled the burden on Hezbollah leadership to collect field information, and on the fighters on the ground to receive instructions.

Hezbollah had overcome a similar communication challenge in 2006, when it adopted combat tactics based on flexible network cells capable of quickly integrating into larger units, or operating independently when communication systems are cut off.

The militant group may resort to this tactic in the upcoming war.

New weapons

On the other hand, the cyber attacks exposed Hezbollah’s technological and intelligence gap, despite its previous attempts with Iran to launch cyber attacks on Israel. Such attacks included hacking government agencies and media sites, either by disabling them or broadcasting counter-propaganda. They didn’t lead to casualties and were quickly contained without significant damage.

The Israeli cyber attack, however, was effective and bloody.

In response to this technological superiority, Hezbollah is trying to compensate for this with weapons development. In the recent attacks on Haifa, it used new missiles and drones armed with explosives that are more accurate compared to drones loaded with bombs.

In terms of psychological warfare, Israel was able to market its great success, whether in the cyber penetration, or the intelligence penetration of the meeting of top Hezbollah unit leaders.

Such attacks and penetration caused confusion among the militant group and its supporters, the Lebanese street and perhaps the entire Arab world.

Israel pushed Hezbollah to another challenge: addressing the psychological war that affects the morale of its fighters and supporters, and confronting the technological war.

The party has now intensified its targeting so that its firepower can reach Haifa, as a sign of a new level of operational escalation. Such long range attacks aim at restoring Hezbollah’s tarnished image, and reaffirming its ability to respond even after receiving strong blows.

We have entered a new phase of confrontation. The war on the northern front has become a reality and not just threats. Hezbollah went beyond Haifa, and Israel went beyond Beirut.

The paradox is that both sides hope that the other will back down at the last moment to avoid an all-out war. However, as the continuous escalation gradually pushes the parties into a corner, any move is another step towards an inevitable large-scale confrontation.