-Analysis-
PARIS — Some 2,300 Ukrainian soldiers are being trained somewhere in eastern France. Along with 1,500 French soldiers, they have recreated a Ukrainian battlefield, the trenches dug as if they were in the Donbas, the sound of drones overhead, the explosions of shells to add stress to the situation.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
This future 4,500-strong Ukrainian brigade is being trained with French equipment, including Caesar howitzers, which they will also find back home when they return in early 2025. At the same time, the first Mirage 2000 fighter jets will arrive in Ukraine, for which Ukrainian pilots are being trained in France. Similar scenes are unfolding in other NATO countries involved in the effort to support Ukraine.
Two and a half years after the start of the Russian invasion, this enormous Western logistical and financial machine is enabling the Ukrainian army to hold out against an opponent that is theoretically far more powerful. But does it allow Ukraine to envisage victory? That question is at the heart of Volodymyr Zelensky’s visits to the UK and France on Thursday and Germany on Friday.
Victory plan
The Ukrainian president intends to present his allies with what he called “the plan for victory.” But he has run out of luck: Hurricane Milton, which is hitting Florida, has forced U.S. President Joe Biden to cancel his participation in an important meeting scheduled for Sunday in Ramstein, Germany, with Zelensky and the Europeans.
The ambiguity of the Ukrainian plan lies in the definition of the word “victory.”
Donald Trump looms over the Ukrainian issue. The Republican presidential candidate has criticized the Biden administration for not helping the victims of recent hurricanes, but for sending, he said, “tens of billions to foreign countries that most people have never heard of.” Biden canceled his trip so as not to serve Trump’s propaganda, but it came at a bad time for Ukraine.
Zelensky’s victory plan has been in development for several weeks, and needs Ukraine’s allies to succeed.
The ambiguity of the Ukrainian plan lies in the definition of the word “victory.” We don’t know the details, but it is not, or no longer, a military victory that would consist of driving the Russian army out of Ukrainian territory. This is not realistic, and the Ukrainians agree, even if they have found it hard to admit.
Reality of the situation
The task now is to give Ukraine the means to change the balance of power, to bring Russia to the negotiating table on terms that are favorable to Kyiv. That is not quite the same thing, it will involve compromises, and therefore sacrifices for Ukraine.
The reasons for this realism are Russian military aggression, which is hurting Ukraine, the fatigue of the population, as evidenced by difficulties recruiting, and the reluctance of Westerners to take too many risks, even indirect, in this confrontation with a nuclear Russia.
On the Western side, it is said that even Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate for U.S. president, would welcome negotiations to end this war that is costing lives and dollars. But that only can happen if Kyiv changes the balance of power with its victory plan’ — and that the West gives it the means to do so.
