-Analysis-
PARIS — What will Israel do with its victory? Over the past 48 hours, a more frequent question has been asked about Iran. What will the Tehran regime do? Or whether Lebanon’s Hezbollah will recover from the crushing defeat in the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
Yet asking how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will use his military success is no less crucial.
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An initial response came from the continuing Israeli bombardment of Lebanon over the weekend. Added to that Sunday was another air attack on the port of Hodeida, in Yemen, 1,800 kilometers (1,118 miles) from the Jewish state, which targeted another of Iran’s allies, the Yemeni Houthis, who’ve regularly fired missiles towards Israel.
Netanyahu clearly intends to pursue his clear military advantage against Iran’s allies, and is trying to redraw the strategic map of the region.
No pause, no negotiation — for now
Two questions arise. The first is whether the aerial bombardment of Lebanon will be followed by an intervention on the ground. Preparations are underway, and there is a logic to it if Israel wants to ensure the return of its displaced northern residents.
The roles have been reversed.
The second is more significant: Will Netanyahu push his advantage to the point of drawing Iran into the war? Teheran has shown no intention of being drawn in, even after the elimination of its main ally in the region. The balance of power is clearly not in its favor.
For years, Netanyahu has dreamed of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities before the country reaches the stage of possessing the bomb. A few days ago, we were wondering whether Iran would trigger a regional war, but the roles have been reversed, with Israel asserting its military supremacy.
Outside pressure
Netanyahu’s brief appearance at the United Nations on Friday showed that he favors force over diplomacy. And that he is not afraid to oppose his allies, the United States and France, who had called for a ceasefire. He knows he can afford it: Joe Biden hailed Nasrallah’s death as an act of “justice,” even if the American president had been focused on pushing for a ceasefire.
Netanyahu has reaped a first ‘war dividend’.
But the United States and France are still trying to prove to Israel that they can use diplomacy to implement Resolution 1701, which stipulates that Hezbollah must withdraw beyond the Litani River in southern Lebanon. Adopted in 2006, the Resolution has so far remained a dead letter. That looks to be the price tag of de-escalation.
For the time being, Netanyahu has reaped a first “war dividend,” by enlarging his majority in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, with the rallying of a small right-wing party hitherto in opposition. This reinforced his inflexible strategy vis-à-vis the Palestinians, Iran and his regional allies, and even his friends, who are urging him to compromise.
The hard line works: but we are still far from proving that Israel will achieve lasting security for the state and its citizens by force alone, without a political solution with its immediate neighbors, the Palestinians.
