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Geopolitics

How Putin Uses BRICS To Wield Power — And Avoid Pariah Status

The BRICS Summit, which opens on Tuesday in Kazan, Russia, is an opportunity for Vladimir Putin to show that he is not isolated. But it is above all the power of attraction of this club of emerging countries that needs to be seen, in a world dominated by the West since 1945 and struggling to evolve.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

After Sinwar’s Death, Netanyahu Can Do One Of Two Things With His Victory

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, and above all ‘mastermind’ of October 7, is dead. Washington and Paris are calling on Israel to seize this opportunity to put an end to the war, but Netanyahu may choose to cash in another dividend.

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Geopolitics

Facing China’s “Appetite,” A Quiet Taiwanese Mission To Sway A Reluctant Europe

She is no longer President of Taiwan, which allows her to travel to countries that recognize Beijing, not Taipei. France Inter met Tsai Ing-wen in Paris , where she defended Taiwan’s democracy, in the face of China’s appetite for power and territory.

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Israel-Palestine War

So Does Washington Have A Say In Israel’s Wars, Or Not?

According to the Washington Post, Benjamin Netanyahu promised Joe Biden that he would not attack Iranian oil so as not to jeopardize the global economy — which could have an impact on the U.S. elections. It’s a deal that says a lot about the ambiguity of U.S. power and Netanyahu’s poker skills.

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Geopolitics

Why North Korea’s Latest Threats Are More Dangerous Than Ever

Tensions have suddenly escalated after North Korea accused South Korea of sending drones over its capital. Threats from Pyongyang are common, but amid an uncertain international context, experts are taking these latest ones more seriously.

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Geopolitics

Will Israel’s Next War Be Against The UN In Southern Lebanon?

The Israeli Prime Minister is demanding that UN peacekeepers leave the combat zones in southern Lebanon, in yet another crisis in the difficult relations between Israel and the United Nations. But this could be the point of no return.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Why Nobody Can Guess Anymore How Far Netanyahu Will Go

Initially presented as “limited,” Israeli operations have escalated sharply in Lebanon, and the Israeli Prime Minister has called on the country’s citizens to rise up against Hezbollah. What is Benjamin Netanyahu’s aim in this war?

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Zelensky Wants More Weapons — But Is Ready For A Softer Definition Of “Victory”

The Ukrainian president has begun a tour of Europe to present his “victory plan,” designed to reverse the balance of power with Russia before negotiating. It’s almost like asking for war and peace at the same time.

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Economy Geopolitics

What The Chinese Stock Market Says About Xi Jinping’s Thirst For Power

The Shanghai stock market soared following the announcement of an economic recovery plan, but then ran out of steam. It’s a symbol of the Chinese people’s wavering confidence amid mounting crises and Xi Jinping’s grab for absolute power.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

The 12-Month Fiasco Of Middle East Diplomacy Has Just Gotten Worse

When Emmanuel Macron called for an embargo on arms supplies to Israel, he was aiming at the United States, following the failure of the attempted ceasefire in Lebanon. Paris even speaks of ‘duplicity’ by Washington and Israel. It’s just the latest example of the failure of diplomacy in the face of the “logic of war.”

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Israel-Palestine War

October 7: A Nation’s Trauma, The Crime Of Collective Punishment

One year after the massacre of October 7, the wars continue (and expand) across the Middle East, and may currently look like Israel is achieving its military and security goals. But it will be a failure without any political solution.

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Geopolitics

The Middle East Is Ablaze — Where Are The Arab Leaders?

Arab countries remain largely missing in action as the region goes up in flames. Those that have recognized Israel are keeping a low profile, the Saudis are talking about a Palestinian state, but they are not averse to crushing the pro-Iranian forces and targeting Tehran. And yet a regional war would upset the current balance.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics special series Trump And The World

Whose World? Watching The U.S. Election From Abroad Is More Disturbing Than Ever

This year’s U.S. presidential candidates cannot ignore foreign policy issues, which are usually absent from the campaign; Ukraine and the Middle East are on the agenda. But while American voters will likely choose their next commander-in-chief based on domestic issues, the rest of the world will suffer the consequences.

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Geopolitics

By Firing Missiles At Israel, Iran May Have Just Doomed Its Own Nuclear Program

Iran decided on Tuesday to respond to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, at the risk of Israel’s merciless retaliation. At stake is Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel has long wanted to destroy.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Bush 2003, Bibi 2024: Return Of The Middle East “Mission Accomplished” Trap

The defeat inflicted on Hezbollah and the weakening of the pro-Iranian axis has shifted the power balance toward Israel, which is continuing its offensive with a ground incursion into southern Lebanon, and dreams of building a “new Middle East.” But we’ve seen this playbook before.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

How Far Will Netanyahu Go?

The Israeli Prime Minister has scored a major victory with the elimination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. But Netanyahu is showing no signs of relenting, continuing the bombing of Lebanon, and also striking Yemen. All with Iran as the ultimate target. Yet can force alone guarantee Israel’s security?

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Israel-Palestine War

Netanyahu Hubris, Hezbollah Raison D’Être: Toward A Ground War In Lebanon

The first calls for ceasefire made by the United States and France, supported by a broad coalition, was ignored by the belligerents Hezbollah and Israel, for different reasons. The risk of escalation, including an Israeli ground invasion, grows with each passing day.

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Geopolitics

Axis Of Appeasement? Why Iran Is So Bent On Avoiding Israel-Hezbollah Escalation

As the conflict rages on across the Israeli-Lebanese border, Iran, which is Hezbollah’s principal sponsor, appears to be doing all it can to avert a war spreading around the Middle East. It could wind up on Tehran’s doorstep.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics

Joe Biden’s Diplomatic Legacy: The Good, The Bad, The Never-Had-A-Chance

Joe Biden delivered his final speech to the UN General Assembly, in the form of a message from a wise old man who has seen dark times before. But while he has re-established a predictable presidency, he still appears hesitant on Ukraine and the Middle East, which tarnishes his record.

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Geopolitics

“Gaza Method” For Lebanon? Israel Shows It Still Doesn’t Care What The World Thinks

After the pagers explosions and the elimination of several key Hezbollah leaders, Israel massively bombed southern Lebanon, killing more than 550 people. Proportionality is over. Escalation has begun. The civilian death toll may start to pile up just like in Gaza.

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Geopolitics

Why The U.S. Can’t Stop Israel From Escalating In Lebanon

The upsurge in violence between Israel and Hezbollah in recent days carries the risk of regional conflagration that the United States does not want. But once again, for almost a year now, the Americans have been unable to get their Israeli ally to listen.

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Geopolitics

An Israel-Hezbollah War Solves Nothing — And Nobody Can Stop It

After a series of Hezbollah pager and walkie-talkie explosions attributed to Israel, Hassan Nasrallah, the movement’s leader, promised to retaliate, while Israel stepped up its air raids. But neither side has a strategic vision beyond the battlefield.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

One Million Victims In Ukraine? Why Such A Grim Toll Will Only Spur More Death

The Wall Street Journal puts the number of Russian and Ukrainian dead and wounded at one million after two-and-a-half years of war, with more than twice as many Russians dead as Ukrainians. Yet this tragic toll only reinforces both sides to continue to seek victory.

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Geopolitics

Here’s What A Wider Middle East War Looks Like — And How It Gets Bigger

Nine dead and nearly 3,000 wounded. The unprecedented attack on the pagers of Hezbollah members is the larger explosion of a war already underway that could consume the whole Middle East.

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Geopolitics

Elon Musk’s Morbid Humor, A Metaphor For America

It says a lot about the state of U.S. politics that Elon Musk, a powerful supporter of Donald Trump and owner of the X platform, used that same platform to joke about the killing of the American president and vice president. Will political violence and the reaction to it shape the results of November’s election?

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

So Trump Doesn’t Care If Ukraine Wins The War — But What Does Winning Even Mean?

The first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump was an important reminder that the American election will help determine the fate of Ukraine. It did not take long to see which option was better. So much so the moderators had to ask Trump “Do you want Ukraine to win?”

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics

Harris-Trump Debate: Two Very Different World Views On Display

The two candidates for the U.S. presidential election presented two visions of the role of American power in the world. For Europeans, the choice of Kamala Harris may be more reassuring, but the fate of course is in the hands of the American people.

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Geopolitics

The UN Is Dying Before Our Eyes — Can Something Take Its Place?

The UN Security Council is paralyzed by the major powers, and the General Assembly, which opens today, has no binding power. At a time when conflicts are multiplying around the world, how can global governance be saved? Is it time to scrap the UN and start over?

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Geopolitics

Maduro’s Fate: Between A Loyal Army And How Far The Latin American Left Will Go

Edmundo Gonzales, the opposition candidate who should have been declared the winner of the July election in Venezuela, has gone into exile in Spain. For the time being, President Maduro has won the day, even if he is denounced by the Latin American democratic left, notably Lula in Brazil.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Algerian And Tunisian Elections, Twin Sagas Of Democratic Regression

In both Algeria and Tunisia, societies were on the move to demand change. In two presidential elections scheduled so close together, on Saturday in Algeria and next month in Tunisia, the powers that be made sure that nothing would change.

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Geopolitics

Can Xi Jinping Crown Himself King Of The Global South?

A spectacular summit is being held in Beijing, with almost all African leaders paying heed to President Xi Jinping, who has pledged another $50 billion to the Continent. The investment in Africa is a boost in Xi’s global influence and an insurance policy in China’s new Cold War with the U.S.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Putin In Mongolia, Or The Death Of International Justice? Not Just Yet

Mongolia is a signatory to the International Criminal Court treaty and should have arrested Vladimir Putin on his arrival in the capital yesterday. Of course, it didn’t — nobody believed it would. But for international affairs specialist Pierre Haski, this is only a setback for international justice.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Israel, When A Vibrant Democracy Cannot Stop The Spiral Of Death

Israel saw a general strike and huge demonstrations following the death of six hostages at the hands of Hamas. The protesters are angry at their prime minister, who is multiplying the obstacles to a ceasefire agreement that could save the last living hostages.

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Geopolitics

The Far Right’s Success In Germany Adds Fuel To Three Fires Burning In The World

For the first time with a win in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) state of Thuringia, the far-right AFD party has come out on top in the regional elections. It will have long-lasting, and far-reaching, ramifications: Ukraine, Trump, French election aftermath.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics

U.S.-China Relations: The Stealth Mega Issue Of November’s Election

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has assured Xi Jinping that, if elected, Kamala Harris would handle ties between their countries “responsibly.” U.S.-China relations are the major issue of this century, as tensions rise over Taiwan, technology and the South China Sea. A Trump victory would make that prospect scary.

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Geopolitics

West Africa’s Russia Solution Is Not Working Out So Well

By pushing out French troops and welcoming Russians, countries in the west African region of Sahel had hoped for autonomy and stability. They’ve gotten death and chaos instead.

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Israel-Palestine War

Ben-Gvir, Israel’s Pyromaniac Security Minister Ready To Set Jerusalem On Fire

Israel’s far-right security minister is multiplying his provocations to change the status quo of the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound. Saudi Arabia denounced the move, and ultra-Orthodox Jews have distanced themselves. But the holy city may explode sooner rather than later.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Russia’s Negotiation Strategy? Break The Morale Of Ukrainian Civilians

More than 200 Russian missiles and drones rained down on Ukraine in one of the heaviest bombardments since the start of the Russian invasion. A response to the Ukrainian incursion into Russia, and a desire to break Ukrainian morale before possible negotiations.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Israel-Hezbollah: What’s Containing The Shared Temptation To Escalate

Between Hezbollah and Israel, the Sunday morning exchange of attacks looked to be the beginning of the long dreaded regional war. But the sound and fury of Israeli jets and Hezbollah weapons amounted to another round of warfare, but not (yet) total war as major power sponsors in Washington and Tehran try to wind them back.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

When The World Allows The Israel-Hamas “Horsemen Of The Apocalypse” To Run Free

Since Oct. 7, the Israel-Hamas conflict has continued to spread, deepening divisions within Israeli society and radicalizing a section of public opinion. Radicals both in Israel and Hamas are taking advantage of the chaos of war to prevent peace — just as they did in the 1990s. For how long will the world allow them to do so?

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