So Does Washington Have A Say In Israel’s Wars, Or Not?

-Analysis-

PARIS — A strange negotiation is taking place behind the scenes around the war in the Middle East. The Washington Post revealed on Tuesday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had assured the United States that he would target neither Iranian oil nor nuclear facilities when his country retaliates against Tehran’s recent attack on the Jewish state.

That was all it took for the financial markets to be reassured, and for a barrel of crude oil, already affected by the fall in Chinese demand, to drop by a few more dollars.

That was the aim: An Israeli strike against Iran’s oil sector, potentially followed by retaliation against the oil-producing countries of the Gulf, could send the price of a barrel of oil to stratospheric levels. At $200 a barrel, compared with less than $73 a barrel in Tuesday’s closing, it would trigger a global economic catastrophe.

Here in France, for example, the government’s draft budget would not hold.

The United States therefore finds itself in the extremely ambiguous position of negotiating targets with Israel, while rejecting any responsibility for the way in which this war is being waged, from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran.

A new red line

The Joe Biden administration‘s priority is obviously to avoid any worsening of the crisis, which could spill over into the U.S. election in just three weeks’ time. An oil shock like the one in 1973, when the price of a barrel of oil suddenly quadrupled, would revive fears of inflation, not to mention the risk of seeing the U.S. forces present in the region embroiled in a war that Washington does not want. None of that would be good news for Kamala Harris.

For a year now, the United States has been living with this ambiguity, which Netanyahu knows well how to exploit. He has not complied with any American demands: for fewer civilian casualties in Gaza, or for a ceasefire in Lebanon. But that hasn’t stopped Washington from supplying Israel with the arms and munitions it needs.

Iran is of a different nature.

Iran is of a different nature, because of the considerable risk of escalation involving the United States. Hence the tight negotiation over targets.

Iran’s position

Israel will no doubt not be pleased, as Netanyahu has long wanted to destroy Iran’s nuclear program and weaken its power. He will therefore be frustrated not to be able to do so this time, if the information in The Washington Post is confirmed.

This situation is paradoxical.

It’s an important “if” because, as the Israeli daily Haaretz, admittedly an opposition daily, ironically points out, “Biden must by now be used to the value of Netanyahu’s verbal commitments.” Even if the arrival in Israel of an American anti-aircraft system with a hundred or so soldiers to operate it is clearly part of the deal.

This situation is nevertheless paradoxical: Israel is waging all-out wars in Gaza and Lebanon, making a mockery of calls for a ceasefire, as French President Emmanuel Macron experienced once again on Tuesday. Yet Israel is apparently measuring its blows against Iran, to satisfy Washington. Conclusion: When America wants, it can.