Netanyahu Hubris, Hezbollah Raison D’Être: Toward A Ground War In Lebanon

-Analysis-

PARIS — After an initial diplomatic mobilization, a first ceasefire proposal was rejected by both Hezbollah and Israel. And so exchange of air raids continues, with Israeli bombardments reaching the suburbs of Beirut, and missile fire from the Lebanese Shiite movement aimed near the coastal city of Haifa.

A war only ends when the parties are exhausted, when one of them wins, or when international pressure is too powerful. In Lebanon, none of these three conditions has been met.

The motivations of the two belligerents are not the same, but they do contribute to prolonging the confrontation, to the great displeasure of the Lebanese people, who have no say in the matter.

Hezbollah’s motivation

Hezbollah, a movement supported and armed by Iran, entered into a latent confrontation in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza as soon as Israeli operations began following the October 7 massacre. In the last two weeks, it has suffered catastrophic setbacks, with the elimination of key leaders, the destruction of part of its infrastructure in southern Lebanon, and the loss of prestige due to its vulnerability to Israeli attacks, notably the targeting of its members via exploding pagers and walkie-talkies.

But Hezbollah cannot agree to lay down its arms while the war in Gaza continues: its entire logic, repeatedly expressed by its leader Hassan Nasrallah, would be undermined. Hezbollah’s raison d’être, in the shadow of Iran, would be shattered.

Netanyahu’s far-right allies are demanding he says “no” to the Americans.

Benjamin Netanyahu has promised the people of northern Israel who have been displaced for almost a year that they could return home: for this, he needs a total victory over Hezbollah. And this is also what the Prime Minister’s far-right allies are demanding, urging him to say “no” to the Americans.

Israeli public opinion

Netanyahu has publicly boasted that he is the only person in Israel who can resist American pressure, especially when the administration is Democratic. It’s worth noting that Israeli public opinion supports him against Hezbollah, more strongly than in Gaza. For a man who was reviled after the security failure of October 7, this is resurrection.

The risk for Israel is to let its military strategy be dictated by public opinion and calls for all-out war. Hubris threatens Israel after its successes such as the explosions of Hezbollah’s pagers and the elimination of the movement’s leaders.

A ground intervention, as mentioned in the statements of the military chiefs, would plunge Israel into another, more perilous dimension, as Hezbollah controls its territory. Netanyahu’s choice of permanent escalation would be a risky gamble, whereas Western diplomacy offers him more modest gains, but without risk.

But as long as international pressure remains weak, Netanyahu will opt for the military headlong rush — and he has the Israelis behind him.