-Analysis-
PARIS — One hundred and twenty-seven missiles and 109 drones, according to the Ukrainian General Staff, that’s the scale of the Russian attack that took place yesterday Kyiv and about 15 regions of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said it was one of the most violent attacks since the Russian invasion began 30 months ago.
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The target was Ukrainian infrastructure, cutting off water and power in several regions. A hydroelectric dam even suffered an attack in the Kyiv region. It is a further blow to the country’s civil infrastructure, and it could make next winter difficult for millions of Ukrainians.
The scale of this attack, which saturated the insufficient Ukrainian air defenses, is not surprising. It is the Kremlin’s usual response to every military initiative by Kyiv. This time, it is an obvious reply to the affront of Ukrainian troops entering Russian territory in the Kursk region, where they still hold more than 1,000 sq km (386 square miles).
The Russian army has not attempted to retake this territory, despite the thousands of displaced civilians and the embarrassment of the situation. But it is literally taking revenge by using its air superiority.
Disproportionate resources
Yesterday, Zelensky once again pleaded for the West to deliver to Ukraine the most sophisticated equipment it still lacks, and above all, to lift the restrictions on the use of the equipment it does have.
Ukraine feels it is waging an existential battle with many handicaps: the disproportion of means between the giant Russia and the more modest Ukraine, but also what the West imposes, out of permanent worry about the Russian reaction.
Ukraine does not have full control over the weapons it holds, especially when it comes to striking Russian territory. The Ukrainian attacks that have multiplied against Russian installations are carried out using drones manufactured in Ukraine, which has a very efficient defense industry.
World War II revisited
Why these restrictions? David Sanger, national security correspondent for The New York Times, gives us the answer in his latest book. In New Cold Wars, he writes that the Biden administration still fears that Zelensky could drag the U.S. into a third world war. It is fear that President Joe Biden expressed publicly on the eve of the Russian invasion, and which has never left him.
Ukraine’s frustration with Western caution has been a constant for two and a half years
Ukraine’s frustration with Western caution has been a constant for two and a half years, despite the uninterrupted escalation of deliveries of ever more sophisticated equipment. The latest are F16 fighter jets that finally arrived in Ukraine after long hesitations.
Ukraine has certainly improved its situation since the beginning of the year, when its army simply lacked shells. But the race between Russians and Ukrainians on the various battlefields is not over, especially as the hypothesis of a negotiated settlement raises the stakes.
The morale of the civilians under shelling by Russian missiles and drones is certainly part of the equation: Russian President Vladimir Putin has chosen to inflict seemingly endless hardships on them to make them finally give up.
