-Analysis-
PARIS — In the months following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, reflections on the “world after” focused on the Palestinian question: who would manage the Gaza Strip? Who would speak for the Palestinians? One state or two…
Today, with the brutal acceleration of events since the Israeli offensive against Hezbollah, speculation is now focusing on the entire region. The death of Hassan Nasrallah, the dreaded leader of Hezbollah, often described as the most powerful man in the Arab world and a conduit of Iranian power to Israel’s doorstep, has abruptly changed the situation.
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All of a sudden, there’s a new, dizzying tone: the infamous pro-Iranian Axis of Resistance, which stretches from the Houthis in Yemen to Palestinian Hamas, Iraqi militias, Bashar Assad’s Syria and, of course, Hezbollah, suddenly seems like a paper tiger after having terrorized the world.
This feeling of power prompted Israel to launch ground operations in southern Lebanon Monday night. From there, it’s only a short step to imagining the rebuilding of a Middle East in which this axis would be marginalized, a step that many have been taking in recent days, perhaps a little too quickly.
Power shift
The balance of military power has clearly shifted in Israel’s favor. Taken by surprise and destabilized by the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, the Israeli army proved in Lebanon that it was superior, technologically and in terms of intelligence, to all those in the region, including Iran, which is careful not to enter into confrontation.
It is this military force that would today constitute the center of gravity of the “new Middle East” dreamed of by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other regional players. Israel is in the process of weakening its adversaries militarily for several years, perhaps a decade, giving it a window of opportunity to reshape the region.
Israel’s allies in achieving this are the conservative Gulf monarchies, which are opposed to Iran and its regional activism, and which have drawn closer to Israel to ensure their security and develop their economies. Even Saudi Arabia, which has not yet taken the plunge, says it is ready to do so, despite Gaza.
A multi-faceted plan
The collapse of Hezbollah lends credibility to this project for a “new Middle East.” But, at the risk of being a killjoy, it does have several flaws. First of all, there is the risk of going from one excess to another in assessing the strength of Iran and its “proxies” in the region — especially if Iran succeeds in developing nuclear weapons in the next few years.
There is also the risk of being intoxicated by victory.
But the main weakness of this plan is that it thinks in terms of regimes, without taking people into account. Foremost among these are the Palestinians, whose cause has considerable regional and global resonance, and to whom Israel offers no response other than brute force. Even Saudi Arabia has added the creation of a Palestinian state as a condition for recognizing Israel.
There is also the risk of being intoxicated by victory, as after the Six-Day War of June 1967, which gave rise to the messianic settler movement — or as in 2003, when U.S. President George W. Bush, who also dreamed of a “new Middle East,” proclaimed “Mission Accomplished” after toppling Saddam Hussein in Iraq, only to find himself a few years later facing ISIS and an even more formidable enemy. No, the world does not function on the basis of power relations alone.
