-Analysis-
PARIS — Like every other country in the world, China is watching the U.S. presidential election and evaluating which outcome it prefers. The difference with the rest of the world is that Beijing knows that Republicans and Democrats agree on only one thing: containing China’s rise to prevent it from becoming the world’s leading power.
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So when White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan was in Beijing this week, he got to meet with Xi Jinping and the subject of the election was on the agenda. According to Washington, Sullivan assured the Chinese president yesterday that, if elected, Kamala Harris would manage U.S.-China relations “responsibly.”
The implication is clear: That is less certain with Donald Trump.
Being responsible is what U.S.-China talks are all about. For two years now, Washington and Beijing have been trying to define a “code of conduct,” a way of competing without necessarily going to war. And yet, for two years, tensions have been mounting over key issues in this relationship: Taiwan, technology and the South China Sea.
No trust
There is no trust between the two giants of the 21st century. China is witnessing the rise of American hostility in the form of restrictions on technology, semiconductors, artificial intelligence and so on. Beijing is also observing the construction of a network of American alliances in Asia, the opening of new bases, and increasingly outspoken support for a Taiwanese president regarded by China as “independentist.”
That brings us back to the main question: How do we prevent a war?
On the other side, the accusations are no less serious. Only a few days ago, a Chinese aircraft entered Japanese airspace for the first time, causing Japanese fighter jets to take to the skies. Serious incidents are multiplying in the South China Sea between the Chinese and Philippine navies, over the possession of atolls that are symbols of sovereignty. The Philippines has a defense treaty with the United States, and this is where the main danger lies.
But the central issue is whether the United States and China can coexist in a redefined world. In her acceptance speech, Harris said: “America, not China, will win the competition of the 21st century.” But that brings us back to the main question: How do we prevent a war?
A November meeting
Hence the importance of these talks; and so far, it has to be said that two meetings between U.S. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart in two years have not led to any progress. A third meeting is in preparation, probably in Peru in November, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Summit.
The date is significant: When the two men meet, they will know who won the Nov. 5 presidential election. And it’s in a moment of possible uncertainty that it’s important to avoid misunderstandings and adventures.
But whether it’s Harris or Trump, the U.S.-China relationship is not close to easing. The organization of the world order is at stake, at a time of intense wars and rivalries. Neither Washington nor Beijing is ready to give up on this point.
