-Analysis-
Edmundo Gonzales should have been President of Venezuela by now. Instead, he was whisked out of Caracas on Saturday aboard a Spanish military aircraft, bound for Madrid for a one-way ticket to exile.
This is the provisional epilogue to the political crisis that began with July’s presidential election. Gonzales carried the hopes of the opposition against President Nicolas Maduro and his bankrupt authoritarian regime. In the end, Maduro was proclaimed the winner with 52% of the vote; but the opposition produced polling station receipts showing Gonzales’ victory by 2-to-1 margins, while the government authorities never produced any evidence of their own.
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Maduro did what Maduro does: he repressed popular protests against this flagrant electoral confiscation, with more than 1,700 people still detained; and an arrest warrant for the opposition candidate, for “terrorism”. At 75, Edmundo Gonzales preferred exile to certain imprisonment.
Army loyalty
The Venezuelan president has two big cards to play. The first is a capacity for unlimited repression, and his opponents know it first-hand, having experienced it on several occasions in the past.
The second is the loyalty of the army, which has stood firm behind Maduro, who had been sure to continue to confer privileges on its members, even during a long period of economic crisis and deprivation. The military is closely watching activity on the streets, and any hint of protest is harshly repressed. Over the summer, Venezuelans watched with envy as Bangladesh’s autocratic president was ousted from power by its army for suppressing hostile demonstrations.
Still, Maduro’s victory remains fragile. Firstly, because if the results as shown in the documents produced by the opposition are true, two-thirds of the country no longer want his regime.
No less important, the international situation is delicate for him to hold on to power. Maduro could easily brush off criticism with a wave of the hand if it only came from the United States and its allies, particularly in Europe. He’s used to this, and Washington, which has plotted against the regime on several occasions, serves as the usual rebuff.
8 million exiles
But they are not alone. Maduro now has against him countries led by the democratic left that can hardly be called American lackeys, such as Lula’s Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Chile.
And the tension is only mounting. Six opposition leaders are still taking refuge in the premises of the Argentinian embassy in Caracas, placed under Brazilian protection after the departure of the Argentinean diplomats. Caracas wants to cancel this protection in order to capture the fugitives, much to Brazil’s displeasure.
The country is in free fall.
The drift of the Caracas regime has created a gulf between the democratic left and the authoritarian left in Cuba and Nicaragua, Maduro’s last allies on the continent. The Latin American democratic left calls Maduro a “dictator”, while the regime’s admirers abroad, particularly in France, remain silent: this is not the least paradox of the electoral coup de force.
This long-troubled country is in free fall, with a record 8 million exiles. The latest is named Edmundo Gonzales, a striking symbol of what’s been lost. But we can be sure the story doesn’t end here..
