The Middle East Is Ablaze — Where Are The Arab Leaders?

-Analysis-

PARIS — Nearly a year after Oct. 7, with a regional crisis that escalates by the day, one element is missing in action: the Arab countries. They are discreet to a fault, not particularly active diplomatically, while the world around them is experiencing an inexorable descent into all-out war.

Tens of thousands of deaths in Gaza, Lebanon swept away by the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, bombings in Syria and Yemen, and Iran awaiting the Jewish State’s response for its own reprisals earlier this week.

There is plenty of room for mobilization, mediation and attempts to put out the fires threatening the region. But none of this has taken place, not even a symbolic summit of the Arab League! The explanation lies in the transformation of regional dynamics in recent years, which could be undermined by these crises.

The first notable fact is that none of the Arab countries that have established diplomatic relations with Israel have broken off those ties. Not the older ones, such as Egypt and Jordan, nor the more recent ones, such as those of the Abraham Accords, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco.

When it can be expressed, their public opinion is in solidarity with the inhabitants of Gaza; yet their governments are keeping a low profile.

Unusually quiet 

These countries have made a political choice: they rely on Israel for their security and economic development. They concluded the Abraham Accords without any concern for the Palestinians, who were ignored in this process of rapprochement, and are in no position today to lecture anyone.

It doesn’t take much to make such declarations.

This “oversight” allows Saudi Arabia, which was on the verge of concluding a similar agreement when October 7 occurred, to be bolder. The Saudi kingdom has added a condition to the conclusion of an agreement: a commitment to create a Palestinian state. The Saudi leaders are not more sensitive to the Palestinian cause, they have simply seized the political moment.

This week, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan Al Saud, published an article in the Financial Times saying that the two-state solution was “more urgent than ever.” It doesn’t take much to make such declarations when they aren’t actually doing anything about it.

Lack of vision

What can the Arab states do? They have been known to be more active, not always to good effect. But the unspoken fact is that most of them approve of the weakening, or even crushing, of Hezbollah and the other movements in the famous pro-Iranian “Axis of Resistance”, starting with the Houthis in Yemen, whom the Saudis and Emiratis have tried in vain to defeat.

We have no partner for peace.

But this axis between the conservative Gulf monarchies and Israel is not etched in stone. It would be put to a serious test in the event of an all-out regional war, or simply the destruction of what remains of the Palestinian territories.

Last week, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, denounced the Israeli leaders’ lack of vision beyond the war. “We have no partner for peace,” he said, paraphrasing a famous old Israeli phrase about the Palestinians.

This rare outspokenness illustrates the embarrassment of those who have chosen to try to make peace deals with Israel, but risk finding it increasingly difficult to live up to them in the ruins of the Middle East.