Axis Of Appeasement? Why Iran Is So Bent On Avoiding Israel-Hezbollah Escalation

-Analysis-

PARIS — In the brutal escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah over the last few days, one major player missing from the scene is keeping a notably low profile: Iran. Yet Teheran is Hezbollah’s ideological sponsor, missile supplier and banker. The Lebanese movement is at the center of the “Axis of Resistance,” which stretches from the Houthis in Yemen to Palestinian Hamas, via the Shiite militias in Iraq and the Syrian regime, which partly owes its survival to Tehran

Since the massacre of October 7, the Iranian regime has repeatedly spewed virulent anti-Israel rhetoric in the face of the civilian toll in Gaza. But Tehran has been careful not to get caught up in the conflict, even when it decided to respond to the Israeli bombing of one of its consulates in Syria. The response, last April, was carefully calibrated to avoid escalation.

The context is different today: Iran has its back against the wall, while its ally Hezbollah is suffering considerable setbacks, and Israel seems determined to exploit its advantage.

Punching back

The question today is twofold: what can Iran do, and what does Iran want to do? It could carry out its threats of reprisals against the Jewish state, made after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismaël Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran. These threats have so far gone unheeded, much to the dismay of members of its “axis of resistance”.

At this stage, Iran is showing no inclination to be drawn directly into the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, no doubt sensing that Israel is just waiting for the opportunity to punch back. A war directly involving Iran would not fail to engage the United States, which has predisposed forces in the Middle East and has just sent reinforcements there.

In contrast, Teheran is sending out surprising signs of appeasement. Iran’s brand-new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is in New York at the United Nations General Assembly, with a mostly moderate speech. He may even support the Franco-American attempt to obtain a ceasefire in Lebanon.

The fate of Hezbollah

How do you explain this moderation? The Iranian president was photographed smiling with Emmanuel Macron, even though relations between the two countries remain quite strained; he gave an interview to CNN stressing that there is “nothing to be gained from war”.

Admittedly, the Iranian president has little power: it is the Supreme Guide, Ali Khamenei, and his armed wing, the Revolutionary Guards, who decide Iran’s regional strategy. He cannot deviate from the line defined by them, and it must be understood that Iran does not want the great regional war it has feared for nearly a year.

Iran wants to save Iran first

The explanation is simple: the Iranian regime is already accused by the West for its military support of Russia; it has a fragile domestic situation two years after the death of Mahsa Amini and the start of the women’s-led, pro-democracy revolt; and finally, it doesn’t want to risk a confrontation that would destroy its efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. Deterrence works.

Will it let Hezbollah be sacrificed at the risk of losing some of its regional credibility? That’s the big question, but Iran wants to save Iran first — even at the cost of Lebanese blood.