-Analysis-
PARIS — The number of victims is one of the best-kept secrets on both sides of the front line in Ukraine. A study published by The Wall Street Journal puts the total death and injury toll from two-and-a-half years of war at one million.
The U.S. daily quotes a confidential estimate of 80,000 dead and 400,000 wounded on the Ukrainian side; and another, less precise estimate on the Russian side, of some 200,000 dead and 400,000 wounded. More than a million victims, dead or wounded, is more than any other conflict on earth today, and it will have lasting demographic and psychological consequences on both countries.
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This is obviously the consequence of a conventional war between two regular armies the likes of which we haven’t seen for a long time, where asymmetrical wars with non-state actors and less sophisticated weapons are by definition less deadly. This is also the effect of wars of attrition, in which many men are sacrificed — especially on the Russian side, as we can see, with more than twice as many dead as among Ukrainians. Cannon fodder, as in the wars of old.
No end in sight
These figures are kept secret because they can sway the morale of the civilian population, on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. We have also seen changes in personnel and strategy from Kyiv after battles deemed too costly in terms of human lives. The same goes for Russia, where Vladimir Putin is determined not to let the cost, human or economic, of his adventure in Ukraine become a subject of public debate.
The Russian army is continuing its territorial nibbling
These dramatic figures would be enough to call for an end to the fighting and the negotiation of a way out of the crisis. But this is still a long way off, despite the efforts of all sides to show themselves more flexible than the enemy. At the beginning of the week, rumors of negotiations sent defense industry shares plummeting on the financial markets, a cynicism on the part of investors that no serious reason could justify.
So it’s down to arms, both in the Donbas, where the Russian army is continuing its territorial nibbling, and in Russia, where Ukraine has managed to block a Russian counter-offensive in the Kursk region, which it has occupied for a month.
The Washington factor
The negotiated path is not realistic as long as either of the protagonists believes it can prevail. Russia is not ready to give up its territorial conquests: Crimea in 2014 and parts of the east and south of the country since 2022; and Ukraine, attacked at home, does not want to negotiate from a position of weakness in the face of a Russian diktat, believing it has no choice but to continue this war despite the human cost.
All this could change after the U.S. presidential election on November 5. Ukraine could lose American support: Donald Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, has just unveiled a “peace plan” that resembles the Kremlin’s demands in every respect, endorsing territorial conquests.
The possible shift in the global balance of power explains why fighting is raging right now, and will continue until winter. It also explains why Ukraine is pushing hard to obtain the weapons that would put it in a better position. The abysmal toll of this war, as revealed by the The Wall Street Journal, provides a bleak backdrop to a conflict that has become a test of power for a new world order to come.
