-Analysis-
PARIS — It may seem strange to take an interest in diplomacy while war is raging. In Lebanon as in Gaza, the intensity of the bombardments continues unabated, and Iran is expecting Israeli strikes any day now. Yet diplomacy does not stop during the fighting, even if it comes up against the “logic of war,” which is all the more difficult to break because none of the belligerents actually wants a cessation of hostilities right now.
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Still, there are two ceasefire proposals on the table, waiting to be seized. The first has been negotiated for months for Gaza. It provides for the release of hostages still in the hands of Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, and the unimpeded entry of humanitarian aid for the two million Palestinians in the territory destroyed by a year of war.
Each time negotiations around this proposal seem on the verge of success, they collapse for lack of pressure — and the prospect of an end to the fighting again becomes tragically remote.
The second proposal is more recent, concerning a ceasefire in Lebanon, and its failure has led to tensions between allied countries. When Emmanuel Macron called on countries that supply arms to Israel to declare an embargo, he was aiming less at the Jewish state than at … the United States!
Tensions between allies
Admittedly, it was Benjamin Netanyahu who overreacted by violently attacking the French President, but the remark had been prompted by the failure of the ceasefire attempt in Lebanon.
The process was initiated by U.S. negotiators, and France was involved because it has, or had, an open channel of discussion with Hezbollah in Beirut, unlike the United States.
The Franco-American text obtained the agreement of the Israelis and Hezbollah, and was due to be announced when Benjamin Netanyahu came to give his earth-shattering speech at the United Nations, and an Israeli air attack killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
The U.S. is letting Netanyahu have his way, in the hope of trying to contain the spread of the conflict.
France did not like the fact that Washington congratulated Israel without taking account of the diplomatic setback; in Paris they even spoke of “duplicity.”
Irreparable acts in Iran
Diplomacy has had little success over the past year. There have been countless trips to the region by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and CIA chief William Burns. The results have been meager.
Macron’s common-sense but surprisingly well-timed remark about the lack of consistency between calls for a ceasefire and the delivery of weapons is unlikely to change the situation. Particularly with less than a month to go before the American presidential election, when the Middle East could be a key issue in a very tight race.
The paradox is that U.S. diplomacy is currently more active in preventing Israel from committing the irreparable act of bombing Iran’s nuclear or oil installations, than in stopping the hostilities in Gaza or Lebanon. The U.S. administration is letting Netanyahu have his way, in the hope of simply trying to contain the spread of the conflict.
One day we will have to write the history of diplomatic action in this post-October 7 crisis, to identify the bonafide duplicity, the public posturing while civilians suffer. Nobody is going to come out looking good.
