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Turkey

Geopolitics

What Five More Years Of Erdogan Mean For Turkey – And The World

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has cemented his already tight grip on power in Turkey, winning an unprecedented third term as president. The West had hoped for a slightly less unpredictable leader, but they will have to make peace with an emboldened Erdogan, who may become even more autonomous.

-Analysis-

PARIS — The re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not come as a surprise, as Turkey's incumbent president’s lead in the first round was reaffirmed yesterday.

The real surprise had occurred in the first round, contradicting Turkish polls and analyses that predicted the president, in power for 20 years, would be penalized by the deep economic crisis and the devastating earthquake in February. However, that was not the case — or at least not entirely: Erdogan had to face a second round for the first time but was not threatened by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of the united opposition.

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Turkey Elections: The Risk Of Escalation Has Multiplied

Both Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his challenger, Kamel Kilicdaroglu, have cast doubt on the first round results. Heading into the second round on May 28, recalling recent examples, in the U.S. and Brazil, we may again see what happens when a populist is faced with giving up power.

-Analysis-

On the one hand, Turkey's 90% voter turnout is enough to make tired European and American democracies green with envy. Yet this desire to participate, to have a voice — the very hallmarks of citizenship — has not prevented an instant crisis in confidence following the first round of Turkish national elections.

Already Sunday evening, when the early results were announced, both sides launched accusations, and mistrust had taken hold.

It was bound to happen, with the same party and the same man, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ruling the country for two decades. He considers the state his property, and has instilled the idea that he is indispensable, the only person who can govern legitimately.

Meanwhile, his opposition has finally united around a strong candidate, Kamel Kilicdaroglu. And they too, feeling the winds of change rising, have convinced themselves that only fraud could prevent their party from winning.

In the end, after hours of suspense, tension and emotions, a second round seems to be the only option. Erdogan himself even admitted it, after trying to proclaim himself winner of the first round. The next two weeks will be fraught in the divided country, which must make a very real choice between two distinct political paths and individuals. The risk of escalation is immense.

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The West Is Dreaming Of Erdogan’s Defeat, Very Quietly

Western leaders hope the end is coming for the reign of Turkey's longtime leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but saying it too loudly is just too risky in geopolitical terms.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Always thinking about it, never talking about it. In Paris, Berlin or Washington, few would shed a tear if Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan were defeated in Sunday’s presidential election. On the contrary, they would be delighted.

But no one in these capital cities would dare say a word about Turkey that could be considered as an “interference” by the outgoing president or, worse, as foreign support to his rival, the opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

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If Erdogan Loses, Will Turkey Revive Its Bid For EU Membership?

An opposition victory in the elections would be good news for the currently disastrous relations between Ankara and the European Union. But the 27 EU members may not yet be ready to consider Turkey's integration into the EU.

BRUSSELS — In the seat of the EU, and in other European capitals, leaders are eagerly awaiting the results of the Turkish presidential elections — hoping for a victory of the opposition.

Still, all remain cautious about the prospect of the end of the longtime reign of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "Whether Erdogan retains power or the opposition wins, this will not radically change relations between Turkey and the European Union, at least initially," says Benjamin Couteau, a researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute.

A win for the opposition led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu would undoubtedly improve relations between Ankara and the EU, which have become atrocious since Erdogan's authoritarian turn.

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Geopolitics
Murat Sevinç

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, The Tranquil Force To Save Turkey's Democracy

The 74-year-old veteran politician has a solid chance of unseating Erdogan from power after 20 years. Kilicdaroglu has displayed the kind of calm and open attitude to save Turkish democracy.

-OpEd-

ISTANBUL — The world may soon get to know Kemal Kilicdaroglu well. The leader of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) is the presidential candidate of the six-party opposition coalition challenging the lengthy rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Polls now show that the 74-year-old veteran politician and trained economist has a solid chance to garner more than 50% of the ballots in May 14 first round of voting to take the presidency.

If Kilicdaroglu is elected, we’ll witness a long transition period to replace Erdogan, who first rose to power as prime minister in 2003, before moving on to the presidency in 2014 after a Constitutional reform changed Turkey's democracy into a presidential system.

A Kilicdaroglu victory would be a new experience for Turkey, and some of it will be made up on the go — no matter how much planning may go into it.

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Turkey

Erdogan Endgame?

WORLDCRUNCH MAGAZINE 32 • MAY 8 - MAY 14, 2023

Geopolitics
Levent Gültekin

When Erdogan Hints At Not Accepting Defeat, He's Playing With Fire

President Erdogan and his allies have spent the final weeks of the campaign questioning the political legitimacy of their opponents' eventual victory ahead of the May 14 election. When the vote does come, the risk of setting off a veritable civil war is real.

-Analysis-

ISTANBUL — There’s a Turkish saying about how the words and sentences about a certain topic are worse than the topic itself. In other words, talking about something may be worse than it actually happening. The topic that I’m going to write about now is a little like that. And yet, the problem doesn't go away by not talking or writing about it.

Süleyman Soylu, Turkey’s Interior Minister, recently compared the upcoming May 14 elections to the coup attempt of June 15, 2016.

Can you comprehend this? The man who will be in charge of the security of the ballots is presenting the elections as a coup attempt before anyone has gone to vote.

Binali Yıldırım, another heavyweight of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), equated the elections to Turkey’s war of independence after World War I.

Yet another AKP official, Nurettin Canikli, claimed that Turkey would cease to exist as a nation if the opposition wins the elections.

Finally, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan himself said that a victory of his main opponent, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, would only happen with "the support of Qandil," a reference to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK which Turkey recognizes as a terrorist organization, and based in Iraq's Qandil Mountains.

All of these statements are a clear challenge to the nation’s will.

I believe the night of the upcoming elections will be one of the most critical nights in the history of modern Turkey.

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Geopolitics
Dominique Moïsi

End Game For Erdogan? Millions In Turkey — And Beyond — Can Taste It

The result of Turkey's May 14 election is still very uncertain, but President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's significant failures put his leadership under threat for the first time in 20 years.

-Analysis-

Can elections put an end to the authoritarian drift of a man and ensure a return to democracy? In a few days, on May 14, the Turkish people will be able to answer this question with a double presidential and legislative election.

Indeed, for the first time since Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power in 2003, the scenario of his defeat is conceivable, if not probable. The opposition finally united behind an experienced politician who does not shine with his charisma alone — Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the CHP, the Republican People’s Party.

And this is all the more true because everything suggests that the Kurds from the PKK (the third biggest party in Parliament today) will join the union of opposition parties, in a ballot that looks like a referendum against Erdogan.

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Geopolitics
Mehmet Y. Yılmaz

If Defeated, Will Erdogan Give Up His Palace Life?

A tale of Turkey's second president accepting defeat begs the question of whether Recep Tayyip Erdogan would accept election defeat on May 14, and return to life as a private citizen.

-Analysis-

ISTANBUL — As we eagerly wonder what awaits us the evening of election day May 14, I want to take you on a trip back exactly 73 years ago. We’re going to May 14, 1950 in the Çankaya Mansion, the former presidential residence of Turkey in the capital of Ankara.

That evening, President İsmet İnönü, the successor to modern Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, had cast his vote alongside his wife Mevhibe at the Çankaya Elementary School early in that morning.

The Mansion’s room No: 18 has already started to liven up in the afternoon. This great room with a billiards table was used by the aides and took its name from the number of the interior phone line in it: 18. But it wasn't until the evening that reports on the election results started to come in. The President was the only calm person as his aides, ministers and the presidential staff were following the results with nervous excitement.

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Green
İrfan Donat

Environmental Degradation, The Dirty Secret Ahead Of Turkey’s Election

Election day is approaching in Turkey. Unemployment, runaway inflation and eroding rule of law are top of mind for many. But one subject isn't getting the attention it deserves: the environment.

ISTANBUL — A recent report from the Turkish Foundation for Combating Soil Erosion (TEMA) paints a grim picture of the country's environmental situation, which is getting worse across the board.

Soil is extremely fragile in Turkey, with 78.7% of the country at risk of severe to moderate desertification, mostly due to erosion, which costs Turkey 642 million tons of fertile soil annually. Erosion effects 39% of agricultural land and 54% of pasture land. Erosion of the most fertile top layers pushes farmers to use more fertilizer, TEMA says, which can in turn threaten food safety.

Nearly all of Turkey's food is grown in the country, but agricultural areas have shrunk to 23.1 million hectares in 2022, down from 27.5 in 1992 — a loss of almost 20%.

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Ideas
Ece Temelkuran

Ankara Or Abroad? A Turkish Exile's Dilemma As Elections Loom

Turkey holds key elections next month. Many who were exiled over the years have returned with optimism, only to be jailed. Turkish journalist Ece Temelkuran says from now on, she will only go back on her own terms.

-Analysis-

“Turkey doesn’t allow its children to be occupied with anything other than itself.” This is the damning indictment written in the diary of Turkish poet and novelist Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar. The sentence is well known in Turkey, but is due an update. Maybe it can be: “Turkey leaves its children nothing to do but to hold their breath” instead. Nothing but to helplessly wait… for another election, referendum, news bulletin, last minute update or breaking news update.

We Turks live our lives assuming our motherland and father-state will slap us unexpectedly one day. And we wait for that day to come — maybe tomorrow, maybe even sooner.

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Migrant Lives
Annalisa Camilli

Why The "Captains" Of Migrant Trafficking Boats Are Often The First Victims

Since 2015, Europe's strategy to stop irregular migration has focused on arresting so-called smugglers. But those steering the vessels are usually desperate migrants themselves, forced to take the helm.

ROME — For the past two years, Mohammed has been living in Antwerp, Belgium. He works as a dockworker, although he does not have a contract. Originally from Freetown, Sierra Leone, he arrived in Italy from Libya in May 2016 on a fishing boat.

“The sea was bad, and everyone was vomiting,” he recalls.

Then, salvation: the Italian coast guard rescued them and brought them to Sicily. But when they arrived in port, Mohammed discovered Italian authorities were accusing him of a crime: aiding and abetting illegal immigration.

He was the boat’s cabin boy, and migrants on the boat identified him as a smuggler. He was arrested and sent to prison, where he remained for three years as the trial took place.

“I could only call home after a year and a half. That’s when I learned that my father had died. He had been sick, but I hadn’t even known,” Mohammed says. “My family was sure I had died at sea because they had not heard from me.”

He speaks slowly on the phone, struggling to remember. This was the most difficult time of his life.

“I had gone to Libya to work, but the situation in the country was terrible, so I decided to leave. I paid Libyan traffickers,” he recalls.

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