With Assad Gone, Turkey And Israel Plan To “Share The Cake” In Syria

-Analysis-

CAIRO — The Israeli daily Haaretz ran an analysis last weekend explaining how Syria could become a Turkish protectorate, limiting Israel’s freedom of action. The analysis by Zavi Bar’el explored how Israel and Turkey will divide up the spoils of Syria, largely taking over the seat of Russia and Iran following the downfall of President Bashar al-Assad.

Turkey and its veteran president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, have a strategic interest in eliminating the threat of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls Syria’s northeastern areas. Turkey views the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey classifies as a terrorist organization and existential threat to Ankara.

Regime change in Syria would also lead to the return of 3 to 4 million Syrian refugees to their country. The Syrian refugees have been a headache for Erdogan and his party, and Turkish society has increasingly become hostile to Syrians sheltered in their country.

Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) who led the overthrow of Assad, controls Idlib province including the Bab al-Hawa crossing between Syria and Turkey. It was a major source of income that helped HTS run a mini-government in Idlib for years. This government has moved to Damascus to run the country and replace Assad’s fallen government.

Despite claims by al-Sharaa and his supporters that the offensive they carried out did not receive any external support, analysts familiar with Syria affairs assert that this offensive would not have been possible without a green light from Ankara and President Erdogan, who have provided support to various Syrian opposition factions since 2011.

At the same time, the overthrow of the crumbling Syrian regime has achieved a strategic gain for Israel that will increase the popularity of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his extremist government alliance. It will strengthen Netanyahu’s chances to stay in power and overcome the effects of the painful blow he received from Hamas on October 7.

The Assad regime was Iran’s closest ally and the spearhead of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” which Tehran used as an alternative to direct military confrontation with the Zionist entity. It was part of Iran’s efforts to consolidate its position as a dominant regional power, alongside the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Shiite militias in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Hamas movement.

Third blow to Tehran

The elimination of the Assad regime represented the third strong blow to Tehran and the Axis of Resistance, after the destruction of Hamas, re-occupying Gaza and killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the party’s top officials.

Netanyahu has been repeating since October 7 that the real response to Hamas’s attack will not be limited to its fighters alone, but must include Iran, the head of the snake that provided funding and weapons along with the rest of the “Support Front” or Resistance Axis groups.

It is true that Assad’s regime did not engage in any direct confrontations with Israel despite its continuous violations of the Syrian territory and airspace, but it was allowing the delivery of vital weapons to Hezbollah. It also provided training and funding to other resistance groups, and allowed large numbers of Iranian advisors and military personnel to be present near the border with Israel.

All of this ended with the fall of Assad, which led Netanyahu to quickly seize more Syrian territory, in addition to the occupied Golan Heights. He’s launched more than 500 airstrikes that completely destroyed the Syrian army’s strategic weapons, including aircraft, tanks, air defense batteries, and others, under the pretext of fearing that they would fall into the hands of a regime whose orientations are not yet clear.

The U.S. and Europe are prepared to give the new rulers of Damascus a chance

Netanyahu did not wait for the new rulers of Damascus to reveal their intentions, and announced that he would continue to occupy Syrian territory for the foreseeable future, despite al-Sharaa’s assurances that his regime does not seek to confront Israel, and is not in a position to do so. Al-Sharaa also said that the objective of his mission is to save Syria from Iranian domination.

Rebranding operation

The majority of the world’s governments are still cautious in dealing with the apparent new Syrian leader, al-Sharaa, who has been known until a few weeks ago by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a former member of al-Qaeda and ISIS and leader of Nusra Front.

Al-Sharaa has so far failed in his attempts to whitewash his name and to rebrand his group to get rid of their designations as terrorists by the United States and the United Nations.

But it appears that the United States and influential European countries are prepared to give the new rulers of Damascus a chance, even if reluctantly, before considering removing the name Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham from the terrorist lists.

These countries were looking for any alternative system to manage Syria and prevent its complete collapse, to stop the expansion of civil strife and the danger of an endless war between the multiple religious and ethnic components of Syrian society, and to prevent the country from turning into a safe haven for terrorist groups.

It was not surprising that Turkey was the first country to announce the reopening of its embassy in Damascus, and that Qatar would follow suit.

Wait and see

It is true that Erdogan has shown a willingness to respond to Egyptian, Saudi and Emirati efforts to reintegrate the Assad regime, despite all its crimes, but he also held Assad responsible for his own downfall for not negotiating.

As for Qatar, it was the only Arab country that had reservations about the Arab League’s decision to return Assad to the Arab fold.

Amid the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran’s preoccupation with its confrontation with Israel, as well as Russia’s preoccupation with its war with Ukraine, there could not have been a better time for Ankara to give the green light to the armed factions to advance and overthrow the crumbling Syrian regime.

Will the new rulers of Damascus actually be able to prevent Syria from completely collapsing?

Certainly, the international and regional countries will follow the wait-and-see approach regarding the developments in Syria in the coming weeks and months. They will watch whether the new rulers of Damascus will actually be able to manage the country and prevent it from completely collapsing, whether due to internal wars and conflicts or failure to manage the state and its institutions.

​Turkish protectorate

However, Haaretz’s description of Syria as a “Turkish protectorate” will stay until further notice, the closest description to the truth.

Still, Israel may be further tempted to seek hegemony across the region following the end of the Iranian presence in Syria, the annexation of more of its territory, as well as the destruction of the Syria army.

The Middle East is also waiting to see the early moves of Trump.

According to the Israeli newspaper’s analysis, Turkish reign over post-Assad Syria may be the only real tool that could deter Israel since it will take a long time to rebuild the Syrian army after years of civil war and Israel’s devastating air attacks on its bases.

And finally, beyond waiting to see how the new Syrian regime takes shape, the Middle East will also be waiting to see the early moves of the incoming administration of Donald Trump. The president-elect has already said Turkey holds the key in Syria, and that the U.S. has no interest in getting further involved in Syria. It still remains to be seen if Washington truly retreats from the region.