Erdogan’s Attempt To Squash Democracy May Be His Ultimate Political Miscalculation

–Analysis–

BERLIN — These days, Bertolt Brecht is enjoying remarkable popularity in Turkey, as the opposition has rallied around two lines from one of his poems: “One alone his lot can’t better […] / All of us or none.”

The truth of this slogan became painfully evident when President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had Istanbul’s Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu arrested — his biggest political rival, who had managed to defeat him four times in local elections.

Now, every government critic in the country is left wondering: If even İmamoğlu can be taken away at dawn by the police, and branded the “leader of a criminal organization,” could I be next?

That fear is precisely what Erdoğan wants to instill in the nation.

If there were a step-by-step guide for autocrats, Erdoğan is following it to the letter. He seems to be taking a page straight out of Vladimir Putin’s playbook: jail your opponents, silence the media, ban political parties, spread fear — secure your throne at all costs.

Global climate

There are several reasons why Erdoğan executed what amounts to a civilian coup over the weekend.

The most crucial is the global political climate: Yes, the rise of Donald Trump in the U.S. emboldened him.

Additionally, as America pulls back from its traditional role as a global protector, Europe has started prioritizing security concerns over democratic values — viewing Turkey more as a strategic partner in defense than as a country sliding into autocracy.

He was convinced there wouldn’t be significant resistance.

This happens as domestic polls in Turkey paint a grim picture for Erdoğan. His popularity is plummeting, even among his once-loyal base, as the economy crumbles. He sees defeat looming in the next election — and he knows it.

So, Erdoğan seems to have thought: if I can’t beat my opponent at the ballot box, I’ll use my grip on the judiciary to bring him down.

He was banking on Kurdish voters, a key dynamic force in the country, staying neutral since he is currently engaged in peace negotiations with them. He also calculated that any backlash would come only from Turkey’s social democrats — a challenge he believed he could handle. And if he went so far as to ban the main opposition party, the CHP, he was convinced there wouldn’t be significant resistance.

But he miscalculated.

People on the street

Erdoğan may have decided to become the next Putin, but the people of Turkey have made it clear they do not want to become the next Russia.

The crackdown on İmamoğlu didn’t just galvanize Istanbul — it sparked protests across the entire country.

In the system Erdoğan has built, every voice of dissent must be crushed.

Opposition groups, previously fragmented, united in an instant. Despite bans on public gatherings, roadblocks, media censorship, restricted social networks, and police intimidation, hundreds of thousands took to the streets, chanting together: “One alone his lot can’t better […] / All of us or none.”

The palace’s response was swift and clear: “None of you!”

In the system Erdoğan has built, every voice of dissent must be crushed. He is convinced that only through brutal repression can he prevent an uprising similar to the 2013 Gezi Park protests.

In a twist of fate, Erdoğan knows firsthand where this path can lead. In 1999, under military pressure, a court ruling sent him to prison when he was the mayor of Istanbul. Back then, newspapers declared, “Now he won’t even be able to become a village chief!” But his time in jail only made him more popular. Four years after his release, he became prime minister, and soon after, president.

Now, history repeats itself: by imprisoning his most feared opponent, Erdoğan may unwittingly be paving İmamoğlu’s road to the presidency.

International community 

Can Turkey resist Erdoğan’s march toward absolute autocracy while opposition leaders are thrown behind bars and strongmen worldwide wage war on democracy? Can the Turkish people — flooding the streets and defying repression — achieve what the Serbian people may be on the verge of accomplishing?

That will depend on how far Erdoğan is willing to go to cling to power, whether the opposition can stand together, and how much courage the people can muster.

Will Europe prioritize geopolitical security over fundamental democratic values?

But the role of the international community is just as critical. In a strategic move, Erdoğan reminded Western leaders — just before arresting his rival — of Turkey’s crucial role in Europe’s security. His aim was clear: to deter European governments from speaking out against his crackdowns, both present and future.

Now, Europe faces a defining question: will it prioritize geopolitical security over fundamental democratic values? Will it turn a blind eye to Erdoğan’s power grab, just as it has with other authoritarian leaders, because it feels it needs Turkey’s military strength and strategic importance? Or will it stand with a people willing to risk their lives to defend democracy?

The answer will shape not just Turkey’s future but Europe’s as well.

After all, Brecht’s warning, written in the face of Nazi tyranny, rings just as true for today’s Europe: “One alone his lot can’t better […] / All of us or none.”