Tunisia-Syria-Tunisia, The Human Tide Of Jihadists Is Turning Again

-Analysis-

TUNIS — More than a month after the downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a number of countries are preparing to face the repercussions of the major change taking place in Syria. They are particularly concerned about the thousands of foreign jihadists affiliated militant groups, notably the Islamic State (ISIS) group, who had been detained along with their families and children in al-Hawl and al-Roj camps in the Syrian desert. Others may have been in Assad’s prisons and were released during the liberation of prisons and detention centers.

Tunisia fears the changes in Syria will lead to the return of extremist Tunisians citizens who joined armed groups in Syria in large numbers years ago. It must be prepared logistically and security-wise to confront this danger, while it is going through a stifling economic and financial crisis.

Prisons are also overcrowded, and are not ready to receive these potential returnees; an argument repeated by most countries that do not want to repatriate their jihadist citizens from Syria, such as France.

Since 2011, Tunisians have been at the top of the list of countries supplying foreign jihadists who joined ISIS in Syria, Libya and Iraq.

Two waves

The transfer of Tunisian extremists to Syria went through two stages. The first was between 2011 and 2013, after the Islamist Ennahda party won the largest share in the Tunisian parliament.

During that time, Ennahda allowed the Ansar al-Sharia and other extremist groups to be active and organize openly in squares and mosques. It also called on fighters to travel to Syria under the pretext of “supporting the efforts of the Syrians to overthrow the Assad regime.”

Libya also was a base for Tunisian jihadists who wanted to join extremist groups in Syria.

The second phase was between 2013 and 2014, when the number of Tunisians traveling to Syria increased significantly. Many pointed at the Ennahda party for sending jihadists to Syria, and that one of its members (a businessman) founded an airline company, which some investigations say was responsible for transporting young Tunisians to Turkey, who then later moved to Syria to join jihadist organizations.

This coincided with the announcement by ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi of the establishment of the caliphate state in June 2014. Some Tunisian fighters had initially joined the Nusra Front before joining ISIS. Libya also was a base for Tunisian jihadists who wanted to join extremist groups in Syria through Turkey. They exploited the chaos in Libya to establish training camps in its sprawling desert.

Unknown numbers

Tunisia has in recent years begun judicial investigations into the transfer of young Tunisians to Syria to join jihadist groups. There were accusations leveled against Ennahda Vice President of former Interior Minister Ali Laarayedh. Ennahda leader Rached Ghannouchi was also accused of contributing to the deportation of jihadists before the Tunisian judiciary, but he denies these charges.

While there are no accurate statistics on the number of Tunisian jihadists in Syria, a 2015 United Nations report estimated more than 5,000 Tunisian fighters in Syria, Iraq and Libya. And the latest Tunisian figures put the number of Tunisian fighters affiliated with armed jihadist groups in Syria, Libya and Iraq at 2,926 militants.

“Authorities know every little thing about the number of Tunisians joining hotbeds of tension to fight within terrorist groups and their distribution across countries,” the Tunisian report said.

Many reports said that Tunisian extremists were the most dangerous fighters and hold leadership positions within these groups. The participation of two of them in the torture and killing of the detained Jordanian pilot Moaz al-Kasasbeh was one of the most prominent operations that was reported on.

Rejecting repatriation

After the U.S.-led international coalitions launched a military campaign against ISIS and other groups in Syria and Iraq, many fighters were killed. Others were arrested by the Assad regime and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

In Tunisia, there was widespread popular rejection of the return of these fighters; in 2016, demonstrations called on Tunisia not to allow their return, and Tunisian authorities did not respond to calls from the Syrian Democratic Forces to repatriate their fighters from the Al-Hawl and Al-Roj camps. Tunisia also did not repatriate residents who were in Assad prisons in recent years, despite the security coordination between the two parties, as official sources reported.

The return of extremist fighters poses a serious threat to the Maghreb region in general.

Amid current developments in Syria, many have called on the government to take measures in case jihadists return. The National Observatory for the Defense of the Civil State, a local NGO, warned of the dangers threatening Tunisia as a result of the new situation in Syria.

“These individuals are supposed to be asked by the leaders and entities that recruited them to return to their countries after their mission in Syria ended, which represents a major threat to national security in Tunisia,” said Mounir Charfi, director of the observatory.

Aliya al-Alani, an expert on Islamic groups said that the return of extremist fighters poses a serious threat not only to Tunisia, but to the Maghreb region in general. “Libya is likely to be the main gateway for the infiltration of fighters returning from Syria into Tunisia, given the fragile security situation in Libya,” al-Alani said.

​Proactive measures

It appears that Tunisian authorities have begun to prepare for the possibility of the return of extremists, whether through Turkey or Libya. They are trying to take some proactive measures, although they have not explicitly announced that they are related to concerns about the jihadists’ return.

Passengers coming from Turkey will be subject to strict inspection procedures

It is worth noting that the Tunisian constitution does not prevent any Tunisian citizen from returning to his country. And the criminal code punishes those who join terrorist groups inside or outside Tunisia, intentionally or unintentionally, with six to 12 years in prison. Yet Tunisia’s evading responsibility and the state’s protection of its citizens is similar to the European position toward their fighters in Syria.

State-owned Tunisian Airlines announced the first step to try to control returns earlier this month; it said that flights coming from Turkey — the main gateway for Tunisians to join extremist jihadist organizations — would be diverted to a separate hall at the main Carthage Airport. This means that passengers coming from Turkey will be subject to strict inspection procedures at a separate customs station.

But while important, this step is not enough, especially because Tunisia has continued to focus on security treatment and has dropped mechanisms of reintegration. Tunisia will also face several challenges in dealing with its extremists if they return.

Overcrowded prisons

Tunisia faces a crisis in detaining returnees inside already overcrowded prisons. Mixing them with other prisoners risks turn those prisons into dens for extremist ideas, and even preparing some to join extremist groups after their release. That actually happened in 2016. According to reports, jihadists who were arrested after returning from Syria and Libya had taken control of Tunisian prisons in a gang-like manner.

Security agencies also have to train and equip its cadres specialized in combating jihadist groups, which means more financial resources amid a crippling economic and financial crisis.

There is also the risk of extremist jihadist networks operating inside Tunisia. These groups could provide returnees a safe haven for the returnees who have combat experience. This risk is primarily linked to extremists who will return secretly or with false identities.

In short, Tunisian authorities do not have comprehensive and clear policies to eliminate extremism and reintegrate returnees, whether inside or outside prisons. That is despite their claim that they have been developing a program for this purpose since 2017.