-Analysis-
PARIS – Two million people took to the streets of Istanbul on Saturday —a massive and striking show of force. And this is just the beginning.
Turkey’s opposition coalition has announced a series of national and regional protests that will continue as long as Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s mayor and the opposition’s unity candidate for the upcoming presidential election, remains behind bars.
Nobel Prize-winning author Orhan Pamuk described the movement in stark terms: “What remains of Turkish democracy is fighting for its survival today.” That alone underscores the stakes at play, especially as it unfolds against the backdrop of a global authoritarian surge, exemplified by the autocratic nature of Donald Trump’s return to power in the U.S.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled Turkey for 22 years, during which he has consolidated virtually absolute power and steadily eroded the country’s democratic space.
A previous opposition leader, Selahattin Demirtas, was arrested after making significant gains in the 2015 elections — he remains behind bars to this day. The same fate has befallen civil society figures like philanthropist Osman Kavala, along with thousands of others, including those detained in recent days.
Can Erdogan step back this time?
The scale of opposition in Turkey since the arrest of the Istanbul mayor on March 19 proves there is still a democratic drive within society. Will it be enough to make itself heard by a government that seems determined to eliminate a major obstacle in its path, the popular İmamoğlu, the only one capable of opposing him? The outcome of this struggle is uncertain.
The pro-democracy Turks know they are alone. The international context is not in their favor. From Washington, Trump has no reason to oppose Erdogan’s display of authoritarianism in his domestic affairs; it’s the least of his concerns. In the past, he has maintained excellent relations with the Turkish president.
As for the Europeans, they are currently focused on keeping Turkey on their side in supporting Ukraine, and will not go beyond verbal protests in response to Erdogan’s crackdown.
Why Turkey’s role matters
Since the invasion of Ukraine three years ago, Turkey has played a unique role on the diplomatic stage. It provided Ukraine with drones that played a key part in the initial resistance to the Russian invasion. Turkey used its historical prerogatives over access to the Black Sea to block any possibility of reinforcing the Russian fleet, offering Ukraine a chance to ease the pressure in this crucial area.
It’s a clear display of diplomatic realism.
However, at the same time, Turkey has maintained dialogue with Moscow, refused to apply Western sanctions, and even attempted for a time to play the role of mediator.
Turkey participated in the recent meetings in London and Paris for the “coalition of the willing,” ready to support Ukraine even without the Americans. This presence provides it with a guarantee of impunity in the face of its internal crackdown. It’s a clear display of diplomatic realism in a time of crisis, and Erdogan is making the most of it.
So, yes, Turkish protesters are very much on their own, but that doesn’t discourage them. There is little to deny that the standoff initiated by Erdogan by imprisoning Ekrem İmamoğlu will be decided by the Turks themselves. The outcome of this struggle, to return to the eloquent words of Orhan Pamuk, will determine “what remains of Turkish democracy.”
