February 15, 2025, Rome, Rm, Italy: 500 people join the protest organized by the Kurdish community in Rome to demand freedom for Abdullah Ocalan, founding member of the PKK party, arrested 26 years ago and sentenced to life imprisonment.
A protest on Feb. 15 in Rome calling for the release of Abdullah Ocalan, founding member of the PKK party, arrested 26 years ago and sentenced to life imprisonment. Marco Di Gianvito/ZUMA

-Analysis-

PARIS – Imprisoned in Turkey for 26 years, Abdullah Ocalan remains revered as a living god by a significant portion of the 40 million Kurds in the Middle East. For that reason, he’s also feared by many. His words carry the weight of an oracle, giving his call Thursday for Kurdish rebels to lay down their arms a historic significance.

In a statement read by a former Kurdish official who visited him in prison, Ocalan urged his supporters to renounce their armed struggle and called for the dissolution of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the Marxist group he founded.

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These two demands mark a major turning point — if they are acted upon. At 75, Ocalan has spent a quarter-century behind bars, far away from his supporters. Intense discussions on this very issue have reportedly been taking place within the active leadership PKK for weeks. Based in the mountains of northern Iraq, the leaders had already agreed to engage in dialogue with Ankara. But will they go so far as to accept their own dissolution?

PKK’s past peace overtures 

This has the potential to spark change not just in Turkey, but across the entire region, as the Kurdish population is spread across Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.

This isn’t the first time the PKK leader and the Turkish government have attempted peace. In 2000 and again in 2013, Ocalan had already called for a ceasefire, but violence eventually flared up again. This time, however, he’s taking it a step further — not just calling for a truce, but for a complete end to the armed struggle and the dissolution of the party itself.

Turkey is now influential in Damascus

Back in October, during a visit from authorized guests, Ocalan reportedly stated that he had “the theoretical and practical power to shift the conflict from the battlefield of violence to the realm of law and politics.”

Displaced Kurds leave the refugee camp in the north of Aleppo, fleeing to Afrin, on December 4, 2024.
Displaced Kurds leave the refugee camp in the north of Aleppo, fleeing to Afrin, on December 4, 2024. – Dia Images/Abaca/ZUMA

Monopoly on weapons

Has Ankara made any commitments regarding the recognition of the minority rights of Kurds — accounting for 20% of the population — the end of repression, or their integration into national political life? It’s too soon to tell. The number of mayors and lawmakers removed from office or imprisoned due to suspected ties with the PKK has become too high to count.

But most immediately, it is in northeastern Syria that the impact of Ocalan’s declaration could be felt. This region is controlled by a group, the Syrian Democratic Forces, which is led by an organization affiliated with the PKK. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December has changed the situation. The new ruler of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is attempting to impose what he calls a “monopoly on weapons” through a unified army — but he has encountered resistance from the Kurdish forces.

The situation is extremely complex: Turkey, now influential in Damascus, threatens military intervention against the armed Kurdish forces in Syria as part of its fight against the PKK. However, these forces have been protected by the Americans since their involvement in the war against the Islamic State (ISIS_.

What will be the consequence in Syria of a possible thaw in Turkey? It will depend on the dynamics created between Ocalan, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the new Syrian leader al-Sharaa. It is a genuine, though fragile hope for peace in a region that has lived with war and conflict for so long.