Has A New Middle East Order Already Sealed Tehran’s Fate?

-OpEd-

LONDON — Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Israel have agreed on a new order for the Middle East that has no role for Iran. As far as the great powers are concerned, the regime of the ayatollahs has reached its expiration date.

The goals of Russia and the United States‘ regional give-and-take include ending the Ukraine war — with neither side losing face or emerging as vanquished. A ceasefire would precede prolonged peace talks under the UN’s auspices. Ultimately, a referendum may be held — again with UN involvement — to give every side its “fair” due. That means giving Putin what he wanted.

During this prolonged period, areas controlled by Russia will provide ample access to the open seas. An end to the Ukraine war will save Russia from imminent bankruptcy (not unlike the Soviet Union, which went bust after engaging in an arms and space race with the United States).

The departure of Russian troops from Syria facilitates this objective. The Biden administration sought to weaken Russia economically by helping Ukraine fight — but not win — a prolonged war. It wasn’t all taxpayer money down the drain, as the billions spent on arming Ukraine went into the U.S. arms industry. Russia’s war-induced economic troubles led Putin to seek a deal with the incoming Trump administration — but again, not as a loser in this war. In return, Russia will give up both Syria and the Iranian regime, which had lost its utility in any case.

The monarchies of the Persian Gulf and conservative Arab states will meanwhile pressure, or beg, the Trump administration to rid them of the Iranian threat for good.

New roles to fill

With the end of Tehran‘s proselytizing regime, the West will have to look for another Islamist bogeyman, for leverage’s sake and to enable the age-old imperial principle of “Divide and Rule.” Who will play that role? Syria’s new rulers or the Taliban seem the most likely candidates, with possible and intermittent contributions from elements in Yemen or Pakistan.

The end of the Tehran regime will remove a chief threat to Israel. Over the past two years, one could see a change of tone in the media toward Iran and its threat, first to Israel and more recently to the world. This was a warning sign that it was becoming a useless nuisance to the powers. The change of tone was to prepare world opinion for any action to be taken down the line against the regime or Iran — as happened with Iraq ahead of the U.S. invasion to topple Saddam Hussein.

Iran is, in principle, an immensely wealthy country. And it is set to become one of the biggest reconstruction markets for Western and especially U.S. firms if and when its regime falls. Indeed, one reason why the first Trump administration ditched the first nuclear accord with Tehran was the regime’s decision — under Russian pressure — to exclude the United States from vast projects in key sectors.

Europe will have a much smaller share of the reconstruction, but it will be satisfied nonetheless. China will keep quiet as supplies of cheap, or cheapish, crude will continue. Russia — despite its limited negotiating ability at present — will still receive some compensation in deals like Iran’s exclusion from gas exploitation in the Caspian Sea. The Persian Gulf states can breath easy, with the removal of a threatening, disruptive and subversive state nextdoor.

Syria and Iran

Iran’s regime abandons Syria — on Russian instructions. Hezbollah leaves Syria — following Iranian order. Bashar al-Assad leaves power — under Russian orders and with Iranian approval. Iraq prevents Iran’s proxy militias from going to Syria — in keeping with its interests and with American approval. Turkey gives Syrian rebels logistical and political backing — in coordination with Washington. Israel stays out of events in Syria — giving assurances to Washington. Russian aviation fails to bomb advancing rebels — as agreed with the United States.

There may be another firefight between Israel and the Iranian regime. Israel may provoke Iran into launching missiles, giving the impression it was about to strike its nuclear facilities. Israel’s “preemptive counterattack” will target nuclear, ballistic and key Revolutionary Guards sites.

Totalitarian regimes are ferocious in the last phase of their resistance.

Iran’s underground stock of missiles will become useless. Tunnel entries may be bombed and blocked. Israel may strike important political targets like the Supreme leader’s compound or his bunker, which is often seen in pictures of his meetings with visiting leaders.

News of any strikes will precede them, for two reasons: to give people working at the sites time to leave and avoid a massacre, and to let people know the regime is going to be hit, possibly to encourage protests. Should protests erupt, the Revolutionary guards and their militias will have to juggle between brutal suppression and the possibility of desertions — echoing the Syrian army’s passivity with Assad. Desertions at all levels will gather pace, sealing the regime’s fate.

As the German thinker Hannah Arendt observed, totalitarian regimes are ferocious in the last phase of their resistance, giving the impression, just minutes before the regime’s collapse, that they were in full control.