-Analysis-
CAIRO — Turkey’s hard line toward Israel since the start of the war in Gaza is getting harder, even threatening to sever all trade relations.
Turkey is reacting to Israel’s escalation in Lebanon and Syria, as well as the direct attacks and counter attacks between Israel and Iran. In particular, Ankara is concerned about Syria after several Israeli officials have begun to refer to the goal of: “Greater Israel.”
When the Hamas-Israel war began, Turkey tried to avoid escalation against Israel, offering to mediate between the combatants, given its warm relations with Hamas as well as the restoration of its ties with Israel in 2022. For more than a decade, Israeli-Turkish relations were a series of heated exchanges between officials in both countries following Israel’s attack on the Turkish ship Mavi Marmara in 2010 while heading to break Israel’s siege of Gaza.
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Turkey’s aim over the past few years was to improve its relations with Israel to help develop economic projects, especially in the field of oil exploration and the transfer of energy from Israel to Europe.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has faced pressure since Oct. 7, 2023 from opposition parties over what they described as the weakness of the Turkish position towards the escalation of Israeli violence against the Palestinians. Erdogan’s government began to harden its positions on both the political and diplomatic levels. Turkey joined South Africa’s lawsuit before the International Court of Justice against Israel for committing crimes of genocide against the Palestinians.
Erdogan also threatened to intervene militarily in the conflict, saying on July 28: “We must be very strong so that Israel cannot do these ridiculous things to Palestine. Just as we entered Karabakh and Libya, we may do something similar in Tel Aviv. There is no reason why we cannot do that.”
Lebanon: direct dangers
The Turkish president’s position also became more severe after the start of the Israeli ground offensive on Lebanon. At that point, Erdogan sensed the proximity of the Israeli threat to his country.
In his speech before Parliament on October 1, he warned of the Israeli aggression on Lebanon and its impact on the region. He said that the distance between Hatay in southern Turkey and the Lebanese border is two and a half hours by car, which is especially worth noting considering how easily Israel expanded its genocide and terrorism in Gaza to Lebanon.
“We do not need astrology to know Israel’s goals, as we know their talk about the promised land that is not limited to Palestine only, but also threatens the lands of Turkey, and the entire region,” he said last month the opening of the Teknofest Aviation and Defense Exhibition.
Erdogan described the expansionist maps exhibited by Israeli leaders as the “alleged map they call Greater Israel.” This map includes areas of Lebanon, Syria, and the southern provinces of Turkey, such as Hatay, Adana, and Mersin.
Israel does not have a plan to clash with Turkey on its current agenda, but the extension of the aggression to Lebanon, and the recurrence of raids on areas in Syria, showcases the danger of Israel getting closer to Turkey.
What increases the possibility of an Israeli incursion into Syria are the ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets there. Israel’s escalation could expand into a ground invasion, especially with the lack of a response from the Syrian regime.
Kurdish dream
The dream of an independent Kurdish state has haunted the Turkish regime for years, and the escalation across the Middle East further fuels these fears as the upheaval could undermine the current map of the region.
The Kurds have already had an autonomous region in northern and eastern Syria near the Turkish border. This area is controlled by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, which is supported by the United States.
Ankara fears that Israel — in coordination with the United States — will use the Kurdish card against it.
The Kurds are minorities like Israel, and Israel must form alliances with minorities like it.
“We see clearly how they want to create small states affiliated with them by using separatist organizations as a tool in northern Iraq and Syria,” Erdogan said in his speech in parliament.
The United States supports the Syrian Democratic Forces, which are mostly made up of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, while Israel seeks to establish cooperative relations with the Kurds in northern Iraq and Syria.
In 2017, when the Kurdistan Region of Iraq sought to hold an independence referendum, Netanyahu announced his support for the establishment of the Kurdistan State in Iraq.
In his inauguration ceremony on Nov. 10, 2024 Israeli Foreign Minister, Gideon Sa’ar, said: “The Kurds are minorities like Israel, and Israel must form alliances with minorities like it. The Kurds are victims of Iranian and Turkish oppression, and Israel must strengthen its relationship with them.”
Turkey’s limited options
In light of these concerns, Turkey has limited options to fight such threats. As a member of NATO, Turkey cannot antagonize the United States by taking any direct measures against Israel. It also can’t bear the cost of a military confrontation, especially in light of the economic crises in Turkey.
In the face of external risks, Ankara is trying to resolve internal differences related to the Kurdish issue, and separate it from foreign policies to reduce the danger of separatist ideas.
Initiatives for a breakthrough between the Turkish government and the Kurdish opposition parties began to emerge, when Devlet Bahceli, head of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party — an ally of the ruling Justice and Development Party — shook hands with the representatives of the Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party at the opening of the new legislative session of parliament.
Erdogan supported the handshake, and Bahceli called on the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, Abdullah Ocalan, to give up arms and attend parliament to announce the dissolution of the party.
At the same time, Turkey has been seeking to normalize relations with the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, a move backed by Russia. Turkey wants Assad’s government to control the autonomous Kurdish areas. It also wants to restrict the presence of armed groups in northeastern Syria with Russian support on the one hand, and to confront them from Turkey in the northwest on the other hand.
Damascus under threat
It is in Turkey’s interest for Assad to extend his control over more areas in Syria, to confront the armed Kurdish People’s Protection Forces, and therefore it wants Russia, Iran and the Syrian regime to take measures towards separatist movements.
“Iran, Syria and Russia must take action against some terrorist organizations supported by America, such as the Kurdish People’s Units,” Erdogan said in October. “Israel is bombing Lebanon, bombing Damascus, and they are explicitly saying that they will invade Damascus after Lebanon, and occupying Damascus means the arrival of Israeli soldiers to the Turkish border.”
Turkey hopes that with Trump’s win, the United States will withdraw its forces from Syria
At the same time, Turkey has launched military attacks in northern Syria against the Kurdish People’s Protection Forces, and such attacks are expected to increase following a recent attack by Kurdish armed forces against Turkish targets.
Turkey hopes that with Donald Trump’s win, the United States will withdraw its forces from Syria. In his first term, Trump had said he would pull out U.S. forces from Syria, but he backed down amid objections from the U.S. establishment.
Turkey remains fixated on the dream of an independent state for the Kurds, but the danger of “Greater Israel” risks being a much bigger problem for him for the long road.
