-Analysis-
Turkey is again at the center of a social and political storm. The scale of the protests that have erupted since the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a key rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, suggests mass discontent with the Islamist presidency — or is there more here than meets the eye?
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The Turkish government believes foreign powers, the regional rivals Israel and Greece, are goading the people onto the street and the protests are part of bigger plans to weaken the state.
The protests have coincided with Turkey’s involvement with regional muddles like Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, and eastern Mediterranean tensions. The Erdogan administration suspects Israel is using its media “tentacles” to create unrest and worsen the crisis. It is also eyeing Greece, with its history of disputes over borders in the Aegean Sea and Cyprus as well as over gas in the eastern Mediterranean.
Every time Greek and Israeli officials meet, Erdogan’s suspicions are inflamed, but are Greece and Israel united against Turkey?
Foreign plotting
Turkey sees Israel as a great power in terms of its ability to mobilize the world’s media, and believes it is pushing sympathetic media to exaggerate the scope of the anti-Erdogan protests and destabilize the Turkish government.
Although Turkey and Israel have had a turbulent relationship in the past — especially in the 20 years Islamists have governed Turkey — the hostility between the two countries has entered a new phase due to Erdogan’s backing for the Gaza Palestinians and hostility toward Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his martial policies in Gaza and Lebanon.
The Erdogan camp believes global media — influenced by Israel — have worked to tarnish the Turkish president’s international image and portray his administration as verging on collapse. It’s a propaganda war, in other words, being waged against a regular government, not a matter of popular discontent.
Greece again
Greece and Turkey have long had rocky ties despite attempts to establish a working dialogue. Both states are in NATO, after all, but mutual resentments are never far from the surface. The two countries’ long-standing disputes over Cyprus, Aegean waters and security issues have led Erdogan’s government to view Athens as a historical enemy. Now that Turkey is embroiled in protests, it appears Greece sees an opportunity to strengthen its position in the region through an alliance with Israel.
Erdogan has repeatedly warned Greece it can expect a firm reply to any hostile moves.
Erdogan, trying to rally the Turkish people’s support, has repeatedly warned Greece it can expect a firm reply to any hostile moves. Facing economic, social and political challenges, Erdogan needs a survival strategy; in such circumstances, presenting an external enemy can always be one of the most effective tools to unite the people.
Can he count here on the nation’s patriotism, and somehow discredit thousands of protesters as a deluded minority, not representative of most Turks?
Regional flashpoint
The competition between Turkey, Greece and Israel is not limited to domestic issues in Turkey. It is taking place in a broader framework and at the regional level. From the Syrian civil war to the Palestinian crisis and the dispute over gas in the Mediterranean, all three countries are trying to consolidate their position in this complex equation.
Will this power play end in Turkey’s favor, or will the wave of protests and foreign pressure finally force Erdogan to back down? The answer to this question will become clear in the coming weeks and months. But one thing is certain: the Eastern Mediterranean remains on the brink of a new explosion, and any political move could be the spark for a larger crisis.
