How Pro-Kremlin Hardliners Are Spinning Russia’s Humiliation In Syria

-Analysis-

The regime of Bashar al-Assad held on to power through Syria’s bloody civil war since 2011, relying heavily on Russian support. It’s now all collapsed, with the Syrian dictator himself fleeing to Moscow, leaving the future of Russia’s military bases, resource enterprises, and exiled generals — dispatched to Syria after failing the “special military operation” (SVO) in Ukraine over the past two years — hanging in the balance.

What lies ahead for these Russian generals? How does it all suddenly look to the hawkish pro-Kremlin “Z-community,” which had once been emboldened by the Syrian intervention?

We might start by looking at the acclaimed TV series Slow Horses, which follows the lives of MI-5 agents relegated to a division for failures or incompetence. Those who cannot be trusted with a job, but who you also can’t fire. Until last week, the Russian Ministry of Defense had its own equivalent of this unit — it was called “Syria.”

For the past two weeks, Syria has dominated the agenda for the Kremlin’s most ardent backers. From the moment armed rebels seized their first city, military channels were reporting on Syrian events several times a day. Initial stories focused on how Russian generals, disgraced in Ukraine, were sent to honorable exile in Syria instead of being dismissed. But the focus quickly shifted to the Syrian army — described as a group of cowardly and incompetent “Sadiqs,” fleeing from armed rebels.

At first, Z-channels tried to dismiss concerns: well, yes, Aleppo has been taken, but they will not advance any further, they don’t have enough forces. Then Homs fell, but Russian aviation was supposedly striking militant columns — right? Okay, they took Homs, the “Sadiqs” continue to flee, but they definitely won’t take Damascus… And then came that “gloomy morning” when the Assad regime collapsed, marking the effective end of the civil war in Syria.

The fall of Damascus and Assad’s escape shocked Z-commentators. Just like liberal authors, they lamented billions of dollars poured into Assad’s regime, hundreds of Russian soldiers killed, the possible loss of Russia’s only naval base in the Mediterranean, and the key airfields that supply Russia’s military in Africa.

Exile for generals 

But these facts are obvious. The interest of Russia’s pro-military authors for Syria-related topics meant that the events of the past days and past years were explained in great detail.

And yet, for other Russians, Syria was just a special operation somewhere on the other side of the world, where we always won and it was shown on TV. And many servicemen of our country have been to Syria over the years. Some flew missions there, others fought on the ground, and some served as military interpreters. A few even took part in seizing the historic Syrian city of Palmyra. Twice.

Control over Syria served as a key point of support for the military. And now, it’s gone.

And that is precisely why the Z-authors perceive the loss of Syria so painfully. It is not just a point on the map or abstract “geopolitical interests” — it is literally Russia’s “symbol of military glory.”

Enemy, not brother

According to Z-authors, there were no significant victories in Ukraine, except for localized successes. So, control over Syria served as a key point of support for many military and security forces. And now, it’s gone.

Z-authors, first and foremost, blamed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan once again betrayed Russian President Vladimir Putin, proving once and for all to be an “enemy,” not a “brother.” Some commentators in Russia are seriously calling to prepare for war with Turkey. Or at least to convince Russian citizens to stop vacationing at Turkish resorts.

Of course, as in previous years, such appeals go unheard, with Russian tourists continuing to lead in the number of visits to Turkey. Likewise, Erdoğan will likely remain a “respected partner” whom he will shake hands with and visit in Sochi.

Like the U.S. in Kabul

Secondly, the blame aimed at Syrians missed the mark. The regime in Damascus engaged in systematic looting of the country while misleading Moscow with fabricated reports of nonexistent successes and complete control over the state. Meanwhile, the foot soldiers who did indeed flee at the first sign of danger were paid little and had no incentive to defend a regime under which they lived poorly.

The Syrian Ministry of Defense and the Russian Embassy in Damascus deserve special mention from Z-authors. The former, according to the MIG Russia channel, continued to issue press releases “on strikes against militants” at a time when Assad had already fled and Damascus was under the control of the armed opposition.

“The collapse of Assad’s army in Syria is very similar to, and even surpasses, what we witnessed in Afghanistan during the Taliban’s offensive and the expulsion of the Americans,” noted the author of the Starshe Eddy (translated as “Older than Edda”) channel.

Lessons from Assad

All these texts, unsurprisingly, follow a predictable pattern. How else could military authors react to Russia’s de facto military defeat? What stands out, however, is something different. Column after column, I’ve noted how the Z-community consistently fails to draw the conclusion from their own texts — a classic case of “naming all the letters but failing to name the word.” Yet, in the case of Assad’s dismal downfall, they finally managed to draw that conclusion.

First, Alex Parker Returns reminded readers that “95% of voters allegedly cast their ballots for Assad with a turnout of 78.64%. Oddly enough, no one seems willing to fight for their beloved president.”

They didn’t believe in their future anymore

Meanwhile, Alexander Kharchenko from Witnesses of Bayraktar channel delved deeper: “The surrender of Palmyra and Daraa happened not because they ran out of soldiers. They simply didn’t believe in their future anymore, and Bashar Assad’s portrait no longer symbolized anything. It’s no surprise they abandoned their tanks without firing a single shot and walked to Damascus… These mechanisms work equally well anywhere in the world. These lessons must be learned. After all, as the saying goes, “Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise man learns from the mistakes of others.”

Although the entire experience of the war in Ukraine and the relentless complaints of Z authors strongly suggest that no one in Moscow is learning from anyone’s mistakes, it’s worth recognizing this pivotal moment. To conclude as I began: what will happen to Russia’s “Slow Horses” now? The Military Informer channel provides an answer: “One wonders where the generals who failed in the special military operation (SVO) will now be exiled to command parades? And those who sat out their ‘success’ in Syria will also return to take up command.”

One thing is for sure: dismissing them is not an option.