Syria's Bloody Weekend — Why It Was All Too Predictable
Syrian fighters and civilians mourn a security officer killed in an ambush by pro-Assad groups. Clashes between government forces and insurgents have left over 1,000 dead in Syria’s deadliest violence in months. Moawia Atrash/dpa via ZUMA Press

-Analysis-

PARIS – Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime three months ago, Syrians have been holding their breath, hoping to escape the cycle of violence that has ravaged their country. Sadly, in the past three days, more than 1,300 people — three-quarters of them civilians — have been massacred in the deadliest events since the fall of the dictatorship.

Everything about this tragedy, which began Thursday night, was predictable: soldiers from the former regime, who had refused to surrender, launched coordinated guerrilla operations in the region dominated by Alawites, the minority from which the Assad clan hails. In retaliation, a wave of indiscriminate violence targeted both Assad’s armed supporters and Alawite civilians — victims of mass vengeance for both recent deaths and decades of dictatorship.

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According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a leading organization in this field, massacres have been committed on both sides, with men, women, children, and the elderly among the victims. Entire families are among those killed. The perpetrators of these atrocities include jihadists, some of whom are foreigners, who are still in possession of their weapons.

Transition under threat 

Is this the end of the peaceful transition? That’s the greatest fear today. The transitional government, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, is struggling to reassure the country’s mosaic of minorities — Alawites, Christians, Kurds, Druze — that their security is guaranteed. It is also trying to unite all armed groups under one national authority. On these two crucial points, trust is now at an all-time low.

“What is happening in the country,” he said, “are challenges that were predictable. We must preserve national unity, civil peace as much as possible, and, God willing, we will be able to live together in this country,” said the former jihadist turned statesman.

What Syrians are most eager to see is how he will discipline some of his radicalized supporters who don’t follow him in his pragmatic shift.

Syrian army forces, armed with heavy weapons, move toward Latakia and the coast to battle fighters loyal to ousted leader Bashar al-Assad. Three months after his fall, fierce clashes erupt between his supporters and the transitional government.
Syrian army forces, armed with heavy weapons, move toward Latakia and the coast to battle fighters loyal to ousted leader Bashar al-Assad. Three months after his fall, fierce clashes erupt between his supporters and the transitional government. – Moawia Atrash/dpa via ZUMA Press

International fallout 

This crisis is also impacting him on the international stage, one of the major issues of the transition. First, there’s neighboring Israel, which targeted the Syrian army right after Assad’s fall, took additional positions on the Golan Heights, and presents itself as a defender of Syrian minorities. Israel views the growing Turkish influence in Damascus with suspicion, especially after Ankara’s strong stance on Gaza.

Russia is still negotiating the fate of its naval and air bases in Syria

And then there’s Russia, which is still negotiating the fate of its naval and air bases in Syria, specifically in the region where the unrest erupted. The ultimate paradox is that Israel would rather have Russia than Turkey on its border.

The massacres also impact the lifting of sanctions still imposed on Syria. A first easing of the restrictions is at risk if the Damascus government fails to prevent the violence from spreading.

Syria has experienced firsthand the outbreak of violence that engulfed neighboring Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein, with the rise of the ISIS. That’s a recent reminder of why the current fire in Syria must be extinguished as soon as possible.