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Israel’s aggression over the past few months, no matter how successful, is ultimately a sign of its weakness. Yet it is able to achieve its goals from the support it receives from a number of players inside and outside the region, whether they realize it or not. That even, paradoxically, includes Iran.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei vowed on Friday that the country’s regional allies would “not back down” against Israel. Yet neither criticism of Tehran has been growing among Hezbollah supporters since the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah.
Israel has targeted Hashem Safieddine, the younger cousin of slain Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, in an overnight air strike early Friday. Believed to be the heir apparent, Safieddine rose through the ranks and positions within the organizational structure. He also has very strong ties, and family connections, with hardliners in Iran.
Was it the “Mother of Miscalculations?” Tehran’s decision to launch a second missile attack on Israel demonstrates its weakness at home and abroad. The Iranian regime may soon face the consequences, as a possible series of events could be triggered by a reprisal from the better-equipped Israeli military.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laid out a careful plot to push and ultimately shatter the long-established “rules of engagement” in the Middle East. It caught everyone, from Iran to Hezbollah to the White House, by surprise. The aim is to remake the whole region to revolve around Israel.
Iran decided on Tuesday to respond to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, at the risk of Israel’s merciless retaliation. At stake is Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel has long wanted to destroy.
The defeat inflicted on Hezbollah and the weakening of the pro-Iranian axis has shifted the power balance toward Israel, which is continuing its offensive with a ground incursion into southern Lebanon, and dreams of building a “new Middle East.” But we’ve seen this playbook before.
As Israel celebrates the death of Hezbollah’s leader, Washington and Tehran both suddenly seem powerless, looking like spectators of an unraveling tragedy that is beyond their control. Yet, given its demographics and geography, Israel desperately needs allies.
Israel has killed Hassan Nasrallah, longtime charismatic head of Lebanese militant organization Hezbollah. His recent leadership had been marked by a new kind of realism in the face of the balance of power, and served as a complement to Hezbollah supporters’ knee-jerk celebrations even when they are defeated.
As the conflict rages on across the Israeli-Lebanese border, Iran, which is Hezbollah’s principal sponsor, appears to be doing all it can to avert a war spreading around the Middle East. It could wind up on Tehran’s doorstep.
As Israel pounds Hezbollah in Lebanon, after its well-orchestrated attack on the group’s remote devices, the militia’s patrons in Tehran were increasingly concerned they could become the next targets of Israel’s ruthless campaign.
Even if the exploding Hezbollah pagers was not the first supply chain attack, having thousands of remote, hand-held devices raised terrifying questions that hadn’t been widely considered before, marking a potential turning point in the public’s trust in their electronic devices, and in governments’ ability to protect them.
With an economy in ruins and facing an unstable foreign environment, the Islamic Republic of Iran has signaled, with the return of seasoned diplomats to top positions, that it wants to talk again. But, as always, those who call the shots in Tehran are loath to negotiate anything crucial with the West.
A spectacular summit is being held in Beijing, with almost all African leaders paying heed to President Xi Jinping, who has pledged another $50 billion to the Continent. The investment in Africa is a boost in Xi’s global influence and an insurance policy in China’s new Cold War with the U.S.
Mohammad Javad Zarif is among the most recognizable faces of contemporary Iranian political life. His return to government in a strategic position does not guarantee his project’s survival. Indeed, radical Islamic forces will likely make him a prime target for destruction.
Residents of southern Lebanon believe that their hometowns will remain an open arena for a long-term war between Israel and Hezbollah, even if this has only happened so far in a way that allows both sides to stop short of declaring an all-out war.
For two decades Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah spoke about destroying Israel, but in recent speeches, he’s just demanding it pull out of Gaza. It’s one more sign that its patrons in Tehran have made a calculation to try to salvage a status quo in the region.
Between Hezbollah and Israel, the Sunday morning exchange of attacks looked to be the beginning of the long dreaded regional war. But the sound and fury of Israeli jets and Hezbollah weapons amounted to another round of warfare, but not (yet) total war as major power sponsors in Washington and Tehran try to wind them back.
Armenia, under pressure from its aggressive neighbor Azerbaijan, is seeking security in closer ties with the European Union. Just next door, Iran may welcome this Western alignment if it means winning a shorter land route for exports to the Black Sea and EU markets.
It’s been weeks since Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran. Will Iran end up striking Israel, as it promptly said it would, or persist in an unnerving waiting game, leaving the rest of the word in the dark as to its plans, resolve and capabilities?
Iranian authorities have been fining young men for wearing shorts. But while this may be an effort to show they are unbiased in their drive to safeguard public decency, reports suggest the men are treated less harshly than women.
Many people, especially in the Arab region, hailed the Houthis’ attacks against Israel. But what they may not know is that Yemeni people have been caught in the crossfire.
Almost 10 months after the Oct. 7 attack, the Middle East appears to be on the verge of a second act of tragedy. This new escalation of the conflict could result in regional war on a massive scale.
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh has become the subject of an unhealthy debate between Palestinians and Syrians. Yet this discussion misses the point and has allowed Israel to benefit from the situation.
The killing of Ismail Haniyeh was not merely the assassination of Hamas’ political leader; it ended the life of a figure who could bring consensus to the Palestinian cause.
A series of strikes occurred just days after Netanyahu returned from the United States, which will have difficulty denying a role in the targeting of three capitals in the region in 24 hours, and may spark a much wider war in the Middle East.
Tehran claims the visiting Hamas leader was struck down in the capital with a “high-tech” missile or drone, so his killing could not be attributed to another security lapse on the ground against the chief suspect, Israel.
While the West is hoping president-elect Masoud Pezeshkian will lead to a détente even lukewarm entente with Iran, a closer look shows Tehran is not fundamentally changing its ways, and continuing to fan crises in across the Middle East.
The concept of “resistance” adopted by militants in the Middle East has a close relationship with oppression and “divine victory,” which Hamas and Hezbollah both embrace in a false interpretation of the Koran, despite the heavy human and material losses inflicted.
Fearing Europe’s shift to the right and a second Trump term, Tehran has dusted off its reformist credentials — with president-elect Masoud Pezeshkian and veteran diplomat Mohammed Javad Zarif — to show the West it is willing to talk. But this ploy will not work again.
Tehran seems to be paving the way for a moderate to become the country’s next president. But the regime’s goal is not to make life better for Iranians, but to leave him with the daunting task of handling a second Trump administration.
Iran’s regime has selected six candidates for the presidential elections due in late June, and possibly even a winner, just as millions of Iranians may have made their own choice, to no longer vote in a dictatorship.
Under pressure from Arab states and Russia, which calls the shots in Syria, President Bashar al-Assad is tiptoeing away from the Iranian regime, a troublesome ally that has nevertheless spent billions of dollars to help keep him in power.
Awkward political figures will run for the Iranian presidency in the elections planned later this month. The one reformer allowed to run will not be able to grant legitimacy to the regime.
Sunnis were historically resistant to have this sacred text translated from Arabic — but especially into Persian, the language of a nation sometimes viewed as reluctantly Muslim. What does that mean today under the Sharia law of the Islamic Republic.
In spite of the Iranian regime’s inclination to conclude the matter of the president’s recent fatal helicopter crash, murmurs around a possible murder plot or a foreign strike are not going away.
The death of Iran’s hardline president might create some political terrain for moderates there and stabilize relations with a complacent West and especially the Biden administration, eager to put a lid on the Middle East before November’s presidential elections.
The Israel-Hamas war has revived the urgency of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through the two-state solution. The West views that this solution would soften polarization in Western societies, and calm down the Middle East, so the United States and NATO can again focus their efforts on confronting the real adversaries in Beijing and Moscow.
In spite of the political or diplomatic headaches this could cause, there are preliminary grounds for not ruling out foul play as causing the Iranian president’s helicopter to crash days ago, reports the leading independent Persian-language news site.
The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash comes in an already tense context, five weeks after Iran’s confrontation with Israel. The consequences are heavy, both in terms of regional and domestic conflicts.