Iran, Israel, Hamas: Act II Of A Middle East Tragedy

-OpEd-

PARIS — In the Middle East, a second act of the tragedy will inevitably unfold before our very eyes in the coming days, if not hours. Will Hezbollah and Iran simultaneously (or not) retaliate against Israel? The first act opened in blood and fury on Oct. 7. The second could result in a full-scale regional war.

After nine months of intense fighting in Gaza, which probably left 40,000 Palestinians dead, at least two-thirds of them civilians, the Israelis have returned to what seems to be their “comparative advantage”: the targeted elimination of their adversaries, from Beirut to Tehran (via Gaza, of course).

Having demonstrated the still unscathed superiority of their intelligence services, will the Israelis — once they’ve got past the retaliation of Iran and its allies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza, if not the West Bank — declare that their main objective (reestablishing strategic deterrence) has been achieved? And that they are now ready to strike a deal in Gaza: an end of hostilities in exchange for the release of the hostages?

The problem is that this rational vision — which may well be that of the army’s top leaders — is probably not shared by either Benjamin Netanyahu or the remaining Hamas leaders. Israel’s prime minister is obsessed with short-term calculations, which have more to do with the future of his person than that of his country.

And Yahya Sinwar, now the top leader of Hamas, sees himself as the direct heir of Salah al-Din (Saladin), the one who receives victory from God. His martyrdom, in his eyes, will hasten the fall of the “Zionist entity,” which can only ultimately meet the fate of the Crusader Kingdoms of Jerusalem. Why should he compromise?

An insult to the mullahs 

Humiliated by a spectacular attack on Ismaïl Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, in the heart of their capital, Iran’s Mullahs cannot let this affront pass without reacting in a “real way” — at the risk of escalating hostilities leading to a full-blown regional conflict and all-out war.

Despite repeated warnings from U.S. President Joe Biden — a long-standing friend of Israel whose sincerity cannot be doubted — have Israeli leaders fallen into the trap set for them by Hamas? “By humiliating me, you have made Barbarians of me. Your desire for revenge — vengeance would be a better word — has gradually turned you into Pariahs on the international stage.”

Everything seems to have come together to prepare the drama we have seen since Oct. 7.

One of Israel’s major problems is that, through time, the occupation and their detention in Israel’s prisons, Palestinians have come to know and understand the Israelis much better than Israelis understand themselves.

There was a time when Israeli military and civilian leaders considered it essential to speak Arabic, and to know their history and civilization, in order to interact with the Palestinians. This no longer seems to be the case.

A superiority complex tinged with indifference, materialism pushed to the extreme in the context of globalization, a religion of the land, identity and security reflexes, the boomerang-like return of the wounds of a past that will never heal, not to mention Israel’s shift to the right and the Palestinian Authority’s corruption — everything seems to have come together to prepare the drama we have seen since Oct. 7.

A past that won’t heal 

Faced with this foretold catastrophe, and before it’s too late, does the international community still have the means, and even more so, the will to act to avoid the worst?

The United States has the means to exert political and economic pressure on Israel, as well as military deterrence against Iran. China, Tehran’s biggest energy customer, has cards to play in Iran. It cannot wish for a direct war between Jerusalem and Tehran, which would have negative repercussions on the world economy and, therefore, directly on China’s growth rate.

One can only note with sadness the very secondary role that Europe can play today.

One can only note with sadness the very secondary role that Europe can play today. It has a front-row seat, but more as an involved spectator and potential victim, than as a responsible player.

What is the penetration capacity of Israel (a country with too much history and not enough geography) by Iran and its allies? Could joint attacks against Israel saturate its exceptional defense capabilities?

Depending on the answer to this question, how far will Israel want to go in its military response? The worst is never certain. But this time, it’s almost probable. From Haifa to Tel Aviv, and from Beirut to Tehran, it almost seems as if we’re preparing for what Kiev has been going through for a little more than two years now.