Iran In Crisis: What Raisi’s Sudden Death Means For The Middle East

-Analysis-

PARIS — The sudden and unexpected death of a head of state is a test for any nation, wherever in the world it may be. But the tension is even more palpable when it happens in a key country like Iran, and in a context as unstable and troublesome as the Middle East since October 7.

The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash is one of those events that ignite a crisis within a crisis, at a time of war and dangerous rivalries. Firstly, because the circumstances are favorable to all sorts of conspiracy theories. Until further notice, this was an accident, in bad weather with a U.S.-made helicopter from half a century ago — near the border of Azerbaijan after the inauguration of a dam between the two nations. Nothing in the official communication, or in the known facts, suggests this was an attack.

But there’s no doubt that this hypothesis will spread, as the country was in direct confrontation with Israel only five weeks ago. Such speculation began even before the president’s death was confirmed.

Khamenei succession

To measure the political importance of this nation’s president, we need to look at the complexity of Iranian power, a unique, theocratic system. In Iran, the elected president is not the top public figure: that would be the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, currently Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The President runs the State, but has limited authority and refers to the Ayatollah for important matters, such as national security.

The question of his succession has obsessed Iran for years.

Still, Raisi’s death plunges Iran into the unknown, not least because he was considered the favorite to replace the Supreme Leader upon his death, in a complex succession process. Ali Khamenei is 85 and in frail health, and the question of his succession has obsessed Iran for years.

At 63, Raisi had belonged to the hard-line wing of the regime, having succeeded Hassan Rouhani in 2021, who was considered a reformist (though these terms should be used with caution). Thus, now, Raisi’s replacement will be a delicate matter in the context of the upcoming succession.

Double risk of instability

This helicopter crash plunges the wider region into even greater unpredictability. Iran is a key player in the regional equation, as sponsor of several of the protagonists in the multiple wars going on: the one waged by Yemen’s Houthis, the one pitting Lebanon’s Hezbollah against Israel, and Teheran’s support for Hamas, even if they do not share the same historical ties with the Palestinian militants running Gaza.

There is a double risk of instability, and of rushing ahead at a time of doubt and fear. The diplomatic and political management of the next few days will be decisive.

Finally, let’s not forget the domestic situation in Iran, marked by the fierce repression of the women’s movement, with hundreds of victims and death sentences. Here again, the greatest risk is the headlong rush of a regime that has lost control of part of its youth.

The legitimacy of the regime is at stake, and the sudden death of the president makes it even more fragile.