-OpEd-
Most Iranians are convinced that the regime has already planned for a dismally low turnout of voters in Friday’s presidential election. They know that regardless of the turnout, the regime will come up with its own numbers — as it did in earlier parliamentary elections — for how many votes were cast, notably for the winner who was inevitably “elected” a while back by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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For that reason, many voters have in turn made their own choice, which is to boycott the ballot boxes set to spit out a successor to the last president — who was barely elected himself — the late Ebrahim Raisi.
Electoral logics
As part of its feeble effort at public relations, the regime may have instructed former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif — a weakling in the country’s power dynamics if ever there were one — to travel and talk up the only “reformist” candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, hoping to stir public interest in the vote.
But Iranians know the regime simply wants electors to vote by rote, automatically, without a care for candidates or results — that part is not their business. It has been that way since the very first election that followed the revolution of 1979.
But for many years the fears, hopes and vital needs of millions of Iranians living inside Iran meant the regime could cajole them into voting. They needed a better life and were taken for a ride instead — at least until a little before Raisi’s own election (in 2021). The utter futility of voting had become quite clear by then.
What makes the regime think people will swallow another episode of its telenovela?
Yet a massive boycott looks bad — perhaps even worse in big cities like Tehran. It’s not what the regime had in mind. Perhaps in a sign of its utter incomprehension of how people feel, some of Raisi’s allies have even wondered how they might win over monarchists to their cause.
Good cop, bad cop
Regarding Pezeshkian, the reformist: one may wonder if this had anything to do with Canada joining the United States to list the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist group? The decision was a surprise to some, as Iranians had come to see Canada as the chief haven of regime cronies, their children and relatives — and ill-gotten gains.
The regime is of course a master at this “good cop, bad cop” routine, dangling a “reformist” before the West every time it feels squeezed. It is the same game it has played with Iranian voters for decades. Vote for this or that one (a moderate) or things could get worse!
Tehran knows that the West tends, inexplicably, to cling to any sign of moderation without a thought for the fact that reformists and hardliners are in it together. They share the same objectives: namely to consolidate the Shia regime and spread its ideology.
It is as if the West could never contemplate a different option: simply saying “no” to the Islamic Republic.
The promises, claims and phony debates of the six candidates — all with dismal reputations relating either to cruelty or corruption — seem pathetic. Whom are they addressing? What makes the regime think people will swallow another episode of its tired telenovela?
