How Israeli Counter Strikes Could Trigger The Demise Of Iran’s Regime

-Analysis-

It was another, massive flare-up in that unrelenting flashpoint, the Middle East. On Tuesday, millions worldwide watched Iranian missiles rain down on Israel. Retaliation is considered inevitable. But for now, Iran may have reached a decisive turning point, as it may soon face the consequences of engaging in anything like a war with Israel and its Western backers.

The Iranian regime has survived for decades by relying on harsh repression at home and a state of international paralysis in its regard that impeded firm, punitive actions against it — barring sanctions or the isolated strike. Today, it faces discontent at home — evident in repeated and massive electoral boycotts — and the threat of the biggest strikes yet from Israel, the death of which Tehran has called for for some 45 years.

The regime’s latest missile strike on Israel showed not just its weakness, but that it has run out of political, diplomatic and strategic options. Very few of Tehran’s missiles hit anything of note in Israel, and the barrage of fire was likely a response to the clamor of its own supporters to hit Israel as it pummels Iran’s proxy militias, Hamas and Hezbollah.

Why else would it have fired? Did the regime imagine it could intimidate, or bring Israel to its knees with a second ballistic assault this year? Wasn’t it a fireworks spectacle to hide Iran’s abysmal internal conditions?

Iranian octopus

For years now, Iran has meddled in states like Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, and raised militias with vast amounts of taxpayer money, in a bid to create a tentacular alliance that would one day engulf Israel. But Israel is chopping away at its octopus arms and killing off its mercenaries. Iran’s regional power looks set to shrivel — if it hasn’t already — given its failure to aid its minions as they struggle against Israel.

With extreme violence, Israel has said it’s time to end this regime’s insidious game of stoking fire and fueling deaths elsewhere, while sitting afar in security. The latest barrage may have made Iran a direct target of Israel’s fury.

Israeli attacks on the Revolutionary Guards could spark another round of protests in Iran.

That said, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stressed that the fight is not with Iran, recently suggesting in a public message to Iranians that Iran may even be rid of its regime sooner than many imagined.

If Israel’s armies were to act in the spirit of that message, their attacks would have to focus on specific, regime-related targets and its sources of repressive power. Those might include, say, bases belonging to the Revolutionary Guards or its affiliated Basij militia, which is habitually used to quell demonstrations. It is even conceivable that attacks on the Revolutionary Guards could spark another round of protests in Iran.

4 possible scenarios 

So what are some possible scenarios facing Iran?

1. A major Israeli attack, leading to the regime’s fall: A full-blown Israeli attack on military, nuclear and energy installations could severely disrupt the functioning of the Iranian state, and, if complemented by popular unrest, hasten the regime’s downfall.

2. Responding to international pressures: The regime may finally accede to international demands to curtail or end its nuclear and ballistic programs. While this might buy time, it would both severely curb Iran’s power and influence in the region, and create further divisions that further weaken it at home.

3. Increased repression within Iran, and another revolt: A frightened regime may decide to tighten the screws on the population to quell anger, though that itself could exasperate Iranians and provoke another revolt similar to those of 2022 and before.

4. A military coup to remove the dictator: This could be the most likely consequence of an Israeli attack, for a severe degradation of public confidence in Iran’s present leadership. that would pave the way for significant developments or change inside the country.

Crown Prince

Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi is increasingly seen as a unifying symbol of the opposition, embodying the hopes of numerous Iranians.

The message he issued after the ballistic attack against Israel urged Iranians to bravely take to the streets again, imploring the armed forces to join them.

Their unity may prove crucial at an anxious and perhaps decisive juncture. As for the West, it may be time to let Israel act on its behalf and put an end to mischief in the “capital of terror.”