Here are the basic facts about the helicopter that crashed Sunday in hilly country near Varzeqan, in northern Iran: all eight people on board were killed: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, two pilots, a flight engineer, Muhammad Al-e Hashem the ranking mullah of Tabriz, and Malik Rahmati, the governor of the province of Eastern Azerbaijan.
The chopper was one of three returning from formal events held on the frontier with the Republic of Azerbaijan, though only the presidential craft crashed.
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While the exact causes of the incident have yet to be established, there are new elements that might at least strengthen suspicions of foul play. The first is why the helicopters flew at all in thick fog that impeded the view.
The presidential helicopter was a Bell Agusta 412, and the other two were Bell Agusta 212, which as an informed source has told Kayhan-London, were bought from Canada for the Iranian Red Crescent under President Mohammad Khatami (mid to late 1990s), all built in the 1990s. As the president and members of the cabinet lacked newer or safer helicopters for the trip, the Red Crescent transferred these three to the presidential hangar at Mehrabad airport in Tehran. The flight crew – Air force Colonels Taher Mostafavi and Mohsen Darianush, and a major of the technical corps, Behruz Qadimi — were considered top-notch personnel of the regular Air Force (though reports have identified Qadimi as the cousin of a man jailed for protesting over the police killing of his son in anti-state rioting in 2022).
Authorities announced the chopper had a hard landing, though nobody has verified this. Pilots carry out hard landings in particular conditions, with specific protocols that are repeatedly practiced before in mock or simulated landings. Still, even a hard landing is likely to produce deaths when it happens on uneven or rocky ground not a strip. It is very rare in any case for helicopters to fly over risky terrain in the middle of fog. Mountainous areas are prone to squalls and turbulence that could down a light aircraft. Early assessments suggest the craft crashed into the mountainside.
Faulty GPS or Altitude Meter?
The helicopter’s altimeter may have stopped working, as it depends — in older models — on external components that may have frozen. That could have misled the pilots over how high they were flying or their distance from mountain peaks. The same source told this magazine that VIP aircraft in Iran all have digital navigation equipment in addition to the pilots’ own tablets. This was the case here, with the pilots likely using satellite-connected programs like Air Navigation Pro or Garmin Pilot App, though the Islamic Republic has no control over their satellite connections.
As the crash happened near the frontiers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, it is possible jamming signals might have impeded the satellite connection, though this again requires investigation. An interrupted signal could have delayed altitude and terrain data pilots need to receive in real time. Separately, the Turkish transport minister revealed the helicopter’s transponder was off – this being a signaling device that allows its localization at all times. Investigators would have to establish whether or not it had been turned off beforehand, or stopped working on the flight.
So failure of the navigation system or its obstruction with jamming signals are a possibility as causes of the crash, our source has said. It must have been sudden as it appears the presidential helicopter’s navigation system had a glitch or was blocked by some jamming signal.
Our source said it believes crashing into the mountainside could well have followed a failure of altitude or navigation devices. It appears the pilots did not report problems or an emergency, or there are no reports of it, even though they were in principle able to contact both relevant control towers and the other two helicopters.
Israel Says, It Wasn’t Us…
On Tuesday, Tehran city councilman Muhammad Aqamiri urged a “careful examination” of the incident to rule out sabotage, as he told the municipal council “there is talk and reports” of “matters” beyond the weather causing the crash.
Political calculations will determine whether Iran would decide to reveal anything about a projectile.
Israel has denied involvement, though in separate comments on state television, the country’s former foreign minister, Javad Zarif, cited the United States as “one of the main culprits” as its “oppressive sanctions” were impeding importation of advanced equipments and spare parts.
Our source also says investigators will look into whether or not the three choppers took off together or flew separately, and whether or not they too had technical glitches. They would also check to see if anything had struck Raisi’s helicopter, though political considerations will certainly impact on whether or not, and when and how, Iran would decide to reveal anything about a projectile.
For weeks before the crash, ordinary Iranians had complained not just about dismally slow Internet connections but also problems in GPS devices, which obstructed hikers, online map reading or taxi drivers in cities. Tehran’s Sharq newspaper reported on this on May 14, attributing the problem to unidentified elements. Most jamming or similar technologies here are in the hands of the military and specifically the Revolutionary Guards.
A clear and accurate picture of the incident has yet to emerge, if it ever will. There is a history of suspected high-level murders in the Islamic Republic, with steady rumors swirling around the deaths of another president, Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani and two sons of the regime’s founder, the Ayatollah Khomeini. And there is cause today for intrigue and rivalries – namely the issue of who will be the next supreme leader.
