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Iran decided on Tuesday to respond to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, at the risk of Israel’s merciless retaliation. At stake is Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel has long wanted to destroy.
The defeat inflicted on Hezbollah and the weakening of the pro-Iranian axis has shifted the power balance toward Israel, which is continuing its offensive with a ground incursion into southern Lebanon, and dreams of building a “new Middle East.” But we’ve seen this playbook before.
As Israel celebrates the death of Hezbollah’s leader, Washington and Tehran both suddenly seem powerless, looking like spectators of an unraveling tragedy that is beyond their control. Yet, given its demographics and geography, Israel desperately needs allies.
The call in Lebanon to “postpone politics” is driven by a narration of the war as a religious, and not a political, event: that’s the root of Hezbollah’s ideology.
Israel has killed Hassan Nasrallah, longtime charismatic head of Lebanese militant organization Hezbollah. His recent leadership had been marked by a new kind of realism in the face of the balance of power, and served as a complement to Hezbollah supporters’ knee-jerk celebrations even when they are defeated.
As Israel continued its strikes in several parts of the country, more than 30,000 Lebanese and Syrians living in Lebanon set out for the Syrian border. It’s an improbable turn of events, after years of Syrians fleeing into Lebanon.
The first calls for ceasefire made by the United States and France, supported by a broad coalition, was ignored by the belligerents Hezbollah and Israel, for different reasons. The risk of escalation, including an Israeli ground invasion, grows with each passing day.
Nearly a year into the war in Gaza, the people of Lebanon are paying a price for both a failing of Hezbollah security, and more broadly for a support war so ambiguous that it’s impossible to understand its cause, purpose, or if anything has been achieved.
The latest developments in the Middle East are part of longer-term shifts that are pushing to U.S. into a tougher stance in the region.
As the conflict rages on across the Israeli-Lebanese border, Iran, which is Hezbollah’s principal sponsor, appears to be doing all it can to avert a war spreading around the Middle East. It could wind up on Tehran’s doorstep.
Joe Biden delivered his final speech to the UN General Assembly, in the form of a message from a wise old man who has seen dark times before. But while he has re-established a predictable presidency, he still appears hesitant on Ukraine and the Middle East, which tarnishes his record.
![Close-up photo of a Hezbollah supporter sporting a headband that reads in Arabic and Hebrew "We swear we will cross [into Israel]" during a rally in Beirut.](https://worldcrunch.com/assets/uploads/2025/03/close-up-photo-of-a-hezbollah-supporter-sporting-a-headband-that-reads-in-arabic-and-hebrew-we-swear-we-will-cross-into-israel-during-a-rally-in-beirut-1568x1176.jpg)
We have entered a new phase of confrontation. The war on the northern front has become a reality and not just threats. Hezbollah may be reeling after the pagers attack and the bombings in southern Lebanon, but it is also set to go on the offensive, taking aim at Israel’s northern coastal city of Haifa.
After the pagers explosions and the elimination of several key Hezbollah leaders, Israel massively bombed southern Lebanon, killing more than 550 people. Proportionality is over. Escalation has begun. The civilian death toll may start to pile up just like in Gaza.
Monday was the deadliest day in Lebanon since at least 2006 as Israeli strikes killed hundreds, including dozens of women and children. The strikes appear aimed at forcing thousands of Lebanese to flee their homes in the southern part of the country, as all-out war looms between Hezbollah and Israel.
As Israel pounds Hezbollah in Lebanon, after its well-orchestrated attack on the group’s remote devices, the militia’s patrons in Tehran were increasingly concerned they could become the next targets of Israel’s ruthless campaign.
Even if the exploding Hezbollah pagers was not the first supply chain attack, having thousands of remote, hand-held devices raised terrifying questions that hadn’t been widely considered before, marking a potential turning point in the public’s trust in their electronic devices, and in governments’ ability to protect them.
The upsurge in violence between Israel and Hezbollah in recent days carries the risk of regional conflagration that the United States does not want. But once again, for almost a year now, the Americans have been unable to get their Israeli ally to listen.
Logic suggests that continuing the fighting on the southern Lebanon front is no more than meeting Netanyahu halfway toward a full-scale war. It also suggests that disrupting this man’s mission requires finding ways to stop the war.
After a series of Hezbollah pager and walkie-talkie explosions attributed to Israel, Hassan Nasrallah, the movement’s leader, promised to retaliate, while Israel stepped up its air raids. But neither side has a strategic vision beyond the battlefield.
Striking with the knowledge that innocents will die is the same genocidal approach that has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza. The particular approach, detonating electronic devices by remote control, should worry everyone in the world.
With its unprecedented attacks on pagers and walkie-talkies in Lebanon that again killed innocent victims, Israel now faces the risk of losing the war not just on moral and legal grounds, but also from a strategic perspective.
Unprecedented attacks via pagers and walkie-talkies carried by Hezbollah members comes amid a growing consensus in Israel in favor of launching a war across the border into Lebanon. Meanwhile, the U.S. may have given its assent and the Lebanese government appears unable to intervene, with Hezbollah holding all the cards on this side of the border.
Nine dead and nearly 3,000 wounded. The unprecedented attack on the pagers of Hezbollah members is the larger explosion of a war already underway that could consume the whole Middle East.
If there is a real peace project and an Israeli intention to solve the Palestinian tragedy, Hamas would have lost its justification for existence. Not just Hamas, but all the resistance factions.
Residents of southern Lebanon believe that their hometowns will remain an open arena for a long-term war between Israel and Hezbollah, even if this has only happened so far in a way that allows both sides to stop short of declaring an all-out war.
For two decades Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah spoke about destroying Israel, but in recent speeches, he’s just demanding it pull out of Gaza. It’s one more sign that its patrons in Tehran have made a calculation to try to salvage a status quo in the region.
Hezbollah’s Imad 4 underground missile facility, which was revealed on Aug. 16, is just another layer of the Lebanese tragedy. For Hazem El-Amin, the footage brings back memories of his experience during the Lebanese Civil War.
A series of strikes occurred just days after Netanyahu returned from the United States, which will have difficulty denying a role in the targeting of three capitals in the region in 24 hours, and may spark a much wider war in the Middle East.
The concept of “resistance” adopted by militants in the Middle East has a close relationship with oppression and “divine victory,” which Hamas and Hezbollah both embrace in a false interpretation of the Koran, despite the heavy human and material losses inflicted.
In Lebanon, as in many countries in the Arab world, abortion is criminalized, leaving women with few safe options to end a pregnancy. In the Beirut-based independent digital media Daraj, Nour, 20, shares her story of learning she was pregnant out of wedlock and seeking a secret medical abortion.
Mediation efforts are ongoing to halt the escalation between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which could degenerate into all-out war at any moment. But diplomacy seems powerless in the face of the logic of war.
While the Palestinian cause is important for Iran and the Arab militias it backs, the return of this issue to the forefront may not benefit the resistance camp. And its tactic of strategic patience may not produce the intended results.
As Israel prosecutes its war on Gaza, Lebanon found itself caught in the daily attacks between Israel and Hezbollah. Lebanese know that Israel has made its position clear, which leaves the big question mark with the regime in Tehran, which largely guides Hezbollah in its response to Israel.
Iran’s allies are attacking the West across the region. The Hamas massacre, attacks on U.S. troops and the Houthi targeting of ships are possibly just the beginning. The fact that the Middle East is so unstable today is due to a decision first made by the U.S. a generation ago.
The killing of Hezbollah commander Wissam al-Tawil, which came after the Lebanese group launched its biggest strike on Israel since the war began, shows that Israel is more confident than ever of its military and intelligence superiority.
Hassan Nasrallah, the longstanding leader of Lebanon-based Hezbollah, grows stronger in direct relation to the declining influence of his rivals, foreign and domestic — embodying the formula for regional influence of Iran’s axis of powers.
Iran’s constitution effectively allows any Shia theologian to become Supreme Leader, and the maneuvering to succeed Ali Khamenei now appears to include Hassan Nasrallah, longtime influential leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia. It could redraw the map of the Middle East, but would ordinary Iranians and politicians stomach such an audacious imposition?
By eliminating Saleh al-Arouri, an important Hamas leader, with a drone strike in Beirut, Israel has taken a risky gamble: that Lebanon’s Hezbollah and its Iranian allies will not go to war over the death on Lebanese territory of a top Hamas figure.
A ghost state, an economy in ruins … Lebanon has still not recovered from the explosion at the port of Beirut a little over three years ago. With war looming on its southern border, the country teeters near total collapse.
Memories are still clear of the war in 2006, which exploded after a Hezbollah attack in northern Israel. Nobody wants war again, even as solidarity for the Palestinian cause is stronger than ever.