The Nasrallah Method: How Hezbollah’s Chief Uses Fear And Populism To Accumulate Power

-Analysis-

BEIRUT — Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah appeared both more coherent and persuasive than in his first speeches after the start of the war in Gaza. Indeed, the Hezbollah chief’s televised intervention Friday might even be described as a “victory speech,” even if there was no objective data to back that up. Quite to the contrary.

The speech came about 24 hours after a high-precision assassination operation of a Hamas leader deep in the southern suburbs of Beirut. The assassination was not only a security and military achievement for Israel, but was also evidence of high-level breaches in Hezbollah security measures that allowed access to information about the timing and location of this type of top-secret meeting.

Inside those southern suburbs, Hezbollah is in a complicated position. The group has lost more than 100 fighters, in addition to the displacement of tens of thousands of because of the clashes on Lebanon’s “southern front,” which means a decline in their living standards and a recession during the harvest season.

Still, most important of all is the price being paid in Gaza every day: More than 22,000 dead, more than half of them women and children; and a near comprehensive destruction of parts of the Palestinian enclave, in a way that makes the return of displaced people almost impossible, at least in the short term.

These are all facts that Nasrallah cover as not merely facts, but as components of Hezbollah’s victory.

The speech was populist to the core. Nasrallah seems most convincing not because he declared victory, but because he is building an guaranteed victory whose main basis is the lack of rivals — Israel and the West on the one hand, and the absence of any real competitor in the local and regional arena to Iran’s axis on the other hand.

Arab Spring disorder

During his speech, which as usual extended for more than an hour, Nasrallah detailed Israel’s losses since October 7, from the revival of the Palestinian cause, the fall of Israel’s image and the failure of its defense and deterrence systems, to Israel’s army inability to achieve its goals on the ground in Gaza.

These are all objective points and based on facts.

Yet the point that Nasrallah spoke about in greatest length was “the destruction of the American image,” which implicated the Arab world in the “disorder of the Arab Spring,” and then “the disorder of ISIS.” And that the U.S. is today “responsible for Israel’s war in Gaza; for not stopping the fighting; and for the killing of children and women. And it is also responsible for violating international laws and the Charter of Human Rights…”

Based on these points, Nasrallah builds the base for his victories and the victories of his axis. He speaks to a wide audience saddened by what is happening in Palestine. “If you are weak, the world will not even cry over you. What protects you is your weapon, and what protects you is your missiles,” he said.

The U.S. and the West face an unprecedented defeat.

Time after time, Nasrallah wields a threatening tone — and the idea of victory is based on the achievements of the allies of the Iranian axis around the region: Iraq, Yemen, Palestine, Syria, and Lebanon. At the same time, he denied Tehran’s responsibility for any military action carried out by any of its allies in the region. He also mixes messages that touch hearts at the grassroots level, with those that speak to minds of decision makers.

He said opening the southern front on October 8 was a “historic decision that balanced Hezbollah’s strategic vision and the national interest.” Without this decision, Israel might have launched a surprise attack of Lebanon, and could have occupied parts of the south.

Nasrallah also expressed his admiration for the Houthi victories in Yemen and the costs incurred by the global economy, while taking a sufficient distance from placing responsibility on Iran.

Nasrallah insisted that the Houthis — like Hamas and Hezbollah — do not receive orders from Iran. Iran’s partners, he said, are “master resistors, not slaves.” They do whatever they want because, he says, because Iran would never cut off funding, threaten, barter or blackmail as the U.S. does.

Divine victory

On its face, Nasrallah’s speech was pure populism. Still, under the current conditions, and with the continuation of the war on Gaza, the matter is objectively more complicated.

By Western standards, human casualties and the destruction of cities and infrastructure play a major role in assessing profit and loss in the post-war stages, but this is a different matter at the local level, where public opinion is being ignored as usual.

Examples over the past years are too numerous to count. Iran and its allies play the waiting game, and succeed every time.

In Syria, massive destruction and more than six million refugees pose a humanitarian challenge on a global scale, but Bashar al-Assad has prevailed. In the 2006 July War between Israel and Hezbollah more than 1,000 Lebanese were killed, not to mention the almost complete destruction of the infrastructure. Still, Hezbollah emerged victorious with a “divine victory.” In Gaza, Hamas may lose its leaders, but another Hamas will emerge after a short period.

The Syrians, Lebanese and Palestinians may lose a lot, and they will be the ones paying the price, but this will not necessarily mean the loss of Iran’s axis or the weakening of its allies.

Destroying Hamas will only happen through a just solution for the Palestinians, which does not seem within reach in the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and the West face an unprecedented defeat. The loser this time is not only their allies in the region but also entire Western societies. Defending Israel as a strategic partner in the aftermath of the Holocaust and with sympathy for the Jews is different from funding and enabling war crimes.

​Who’s in charge

Western governments’ siding with an effective Israeli lobby and Israel’s a far-right government would have great consequences on Western societies, if governments don’t stop such support. Such consequences have become clear and what is happening in the U.S. universities is more than terrifying.

Within the Middle East, there are no options for all those who are against Iran’s axis. That opposition is not for political reasons, but based on human rights and freedom of expression. Israel’s crimes against the Palestinians can’t be tolerated. Being on the right side of history means being against what Israel is doing.

“We hope that Hezbollah will not involve itself in a larger war.”

Such a political vacuum is not filled by Hamas, Hezbollah and the Iranian axis, whether we like it or not. Even fierce critics of this axis, who are terrified by its rise, can’t side with Israel.

Without a doubt, Hezbollah does not want a war against the region’s most powerful military machine — and Israel has shown that it will not hesitate to commit any crime. But today, no matter how difficult its position, Hezbollah is still the strongest player in Lebanon. There’s no clearer evidence than the way that the Lebanese, and the world, wait for Nasrallah’s speech to know whether Lebanon is heading towards an escalation in response to an assassination that took place deep in the Lebanese capital.

Meanwhile, Lebanon — which does not have a president, government, parliament, or even an effective judiciary — is barely a witness to what is happening, aware that the decision of war and peace on its soil is not in its hands. This is exactly what Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib said to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour when she asked him about his expectations, and whether the government has the ability to control Hezbollah. He replied:

“We are always in dialogue with Hezbollah. But we can’t order them, and we hope that they will not involve themselves in a larger war.”

This leaves us, the Lebanese, to always have to wait for Nasrallah’s next speech, as the decision on war and peace in Lebanon is in the hands of his party and its axis, now with the explicit acknowledgment of the Lebanese Foreign Minister.

This alone is an achievement for Hezbollah and Iran during the current state of war in the region — we will see what the balance of power will be after it ends.