Israel’s Assassinations Inside Lebanon Are A Warning To Hezbollah — And A Dare

-Analysis-

Israel’s assassination this past week of prominent Hezbollah leader Wissam al-Tawil, a commander of the Radwan Brigade’s training and confrontation unit, eliminated a pivotal player in the group’s operations on the Israeli border. His vehicle was struck in his hometown of Khirbet Salam, in southern Lebanon. The killing brought Hezbollah’s death toll to 160 fighters, including commanders, since the beginning of the war.

Founded by Imad Mughniyeh after the July 2006 war, Radwan Brigade is an elite Hezbollah force that aims to infiltrate Israel. The force gained significant combat experience fighting alongside the Syrian military.

Al-Tawil was not the first Hezbollah commander assassinated by Israel since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. It has killed five fighters from Radwan Brigade. This includes Abbas Raad, son of the prominent Hezbollah lawmaker Mohammed Raad, who was killed in a November 23 airstrike on a home in Beit Yahoun in south Lebanon.

Israel has also targeted Hezbollah members far from the frontlines. An Israeli drone strike hit a Hezbollah position in Jabal Safi area, killing seven fighters on Nov. 21, when clashes were confined to the border.

Targeted killings and retaliation

Al-Tawil’s assassination followed Hezbollah’s largest strike on Israel since the war began. On Jan. 6, the group fired more than 60 missiles at Israel’s Meron base in what said was an initial response to the killing of Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Meron is the largest military base in northern Israel and the only declared surveillance and air control center in the area. Israel uses it to run and coordinate operations in Lebanon, Syria and other areas in the region. It is also used for electronic jamming, and houses large numbers of Israeli forces, according to a Hezbollah statement on the attack.

Israeli’s repeated targeted strikes have revealed Hezbollah’s security and intelligence flaws.

Al-Arouri’s assassination is part of what Israel called a third phase in its war against Hamas, which includes precise targets, destroying Hamas’ capabilities and reducing its threat. Israel is expected to target Hamas leadership in several countries to prevent a repeat of the Oct. 7 attack. Hezbollah responded to al-Arouri’s assassination given that it occurred in its security stronghold south of Beirut.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah had said he would not remain silent about an assassination attempt on Lebanese soil, and would not allow Lebanon to become a new arena for Israeli assassinations. The targeted killing of al-Arouri suggests a security breach that allowed Israel to know the time and location of the Hamas meeting. Al-Arouri was scheduled to meet with Nasrallah the following day.

Hezbollah seeks a balanced response

Israeli’s repeated targeted strikes have revealed Hezbollah’s security and intelligence flaws. Despite Hezbollah’s efforts to target and destroy watchtowers and posts along the border, Israeli drones have been able to find their targets deep in residential areas without significant collateral damage. The drones have also been used to target Hezbollah fighters during their withdrawal from the frontlines, which prompted Hezbollah to use longer-range missiles.

At the time, Hezbollah unofficially circulated warnings on WhatsApp groups about posting footage that show sites of missile launchers and provide coordinates that help Israel determine the identity of fighters or their locations. But such warnings didn’t impact Israel’s strikes, which developed to target Hezbollah fighters in their movements and positions in the south.

Israel is aware of its superiority.

Unable to match Israel’s technological, military and intelligence capabilities thus far, Hezbollah has tried to balance its retaliation against the possibility of dragging Lebanon into a costly war. Security breaches within the group, which were excised in its 2006 war, were discovered as a result of the war.

Israel is aware of its superiority and is moving forward with its plans to drive Hezbollah north of the Litani River, Israeli officials say. It is planning to deploy more troops to northern borders, and are preparing hospitals and shelters in the area for the possibility of a wider war with Hezbollah.

On the other side of the border, Lebanon hasn’t taken any measures against such a scenario. And by all measures, diplomatic efforts have so far failed to calm the conflict.