-Analysis-
PARIS — Israel has inflicted its hardest blow against Hamas leaders, the Islamist movement responsible for the October 7 massacre. Paradoxically, the hit did not take place in Gaza, which has been relentlessly shelled for the past three months, but in Beirut.
An Israeli drone attack killed Hamas’s number two, Saleh al-Arouri on Tuesday in the Lebanese capital. He was on the organization’s premises in the southern suburbs of Beirut, the stronghold of its ally, the pro-Iranian Hezbollah. It was in fact Hezbollah who confirmed the death of the Hamas leader and accused Israel of carrying out the assassination.
Saleh al-Arouri was an important figure in the organization. Last month, Beirut’s French language daily, L’Orient-le-Jour, recalled that his move to Lebanon, in 2018, had marked the rise of Hamas in the country. This concerted political action in support of Palestinian camps in Lebanon, along with a discreet presence of its military wing, was a source of real concern in Israel.
The killing of al-Arouri was the kind of “win” Israeli leaders needed in their goal to eradicate Hamas after the October 7 attack. Until now, they have largely failed in Gaza, despite the colossal human cost inflicted on Palestinian civilians. The movement’s two main leaders in the territory, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, remain unaccounted for. The elimination in Beirut of the No. 2 of Hamas’ Political Bureau serves the interests of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is facing rising pressure.
Calculated risk
But Israel has also taken a calculated risk by striking a Hamas leader abroad. This risk involves pushing Hezbollah a little further down the road to an all-out war with Israel, dragging along an already drained Lebanon.
For almost three months, the risk of opening a front north of Israel has been spreading, with a slow but controlled escalation on both sides. Israel is betting that the assassination of a Hamas leader will not tip Hezbollah into a full-fledged war that could change the balance of power in the region.
This is a second blow for Tehran.
But does this risk exist? That ultimately depends on Iran. Hezbollah would not initiate such a major escalation without Tehran’s green light, which provides its weapons and funding.
A regional war
Iran had already taken a heavy blow after the death on December 25 of the most senior member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, General Razi Mousavi, in an Israeli strike in Syria. Tehran had declared that Israel would pay “a heavy price” for this targeted assassination. This is a second blow for Tehran, which has been closely managing the escalation of the conflict for the past three months, without running the risk of being drawn into it.
Strangely, this sudden rise in tension coincides with the U.S. withdrawing the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford, which had been in the Eastern Mediterranean since October. Its departure has gone unexplained and therefore open to conflicting interpretations.
Once again, the Middle East is at a decisive moment, not between peace and war, but between the Gaza war and a conflict that could draw in the whole region.
