-Analysis-
PARIS — Speaking of the risk of war would be misleading, because war is already there. The risk, today, is the one of a total war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese political and military organization.
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The situation is escalating, and it might degenerate into a new war at any given moment — a second front, after the one opened more than eight months ago by Israel in Gaza in response to the Oct. 7 massacre. A war that would have disastrous consequences for Lebanon, already weakened by its own internal crisis.
In the past few days alone, an Israeli strike killed a Hezbollah general driving in southern Lebanon, the highest-ranking officer to be shot dead. Hezbollah’s response took place in the form of a rain of missiles and artillery on northern Israel. Month after month, the targets and weapons used have increased.
Double logic
To try to stop a war that no one seemed to want until some weeks ago, an American envoy, Amos Hochstein, arrived in Israel yesterday, before going to Lebanon. But diplomacy seems to be at a loss.
There is a double logic in this conflict. Hochstein as well as French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, who was in Beirut last month, are trying to ease tensions. Le Drian even held a meeting with a Hezbollah representative, something that his U.S. counterpart cannot do. But diplomacy seems to be at a loss.
A failure in mediation could leave only one way out: total war.
On the Hezbollah side, chief Hassan Nasrallah has drawn a link between the two fronts, in Gaza and southern Lebanon: If the first doesn’t stop, neither will the second. Le Drian, the former French foreign minister, has pleaded to detach the two issues. But that would affect Hezbollah’s regional stance and, consequently, that of Iran, which wants to show its solidarity with battered Gaza.
On the Israeli side, escalation is tempting, as it would end the threat posed by the heavily armed Shiite movement. And there is the pressure from tens of thousands of Israelis in the north, who have been evacuated for months, as well as the images of the fires caused by Hezbollah’s missiles, which fuel a desire for revenge.
If negotiations fail
Can Israel deal with two fronts at the same time? This is an important question, as a war in southern Lebanon would be of a different magnitude than the one carried out by Israel in Gaza, which is already failing to achieve its objectives.
The dissolution of the war cabinet is a reflection of this tension.
Added to this question are those of Israeli domestic politics; of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who seems to be engaged in a permanent headlong rush without any obvious strategy; of a society under tension, between those who call for an agreement to save the hostages and a belligerent far-right pushing for escalation. The dissolution of the war cabinet on Monday is a reflection of this tension, with Netanyahu refusing to include the far right in the cabinet.
The future of war and peace all depend on these factors, on both sides, in a regional crisis that external actors are struggling to contain. At any given moment, a failure in mediation could mean that total war is the only one way out.
