-Analysis-
PARIS — Here’s a wild thought: What if Donald Trump, emboldened by his show of strength on the Iranian front, decided to use that same power to defend Ukraine against Russia’s invasion?
The U.S. president could post it on his social network — in all caps, as he did Tuesday addressing Israel and Iran amid their fragile ceasefire: “STOP THE WAR.” An injunction that would be backed by the threat of sweeping sanctions against any violator, and the promise of limitless military aid to the attacked.
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It worked in the Middle East. But it won’t happen in Ukraine.
The three-year-old war on the Alliance’s eastern border is nowhere to be seen on the agenda of the NATO Summit, which kicked off Tuesday night in The Hague with a gala dinner hosted by the King of the Netherlands. Instead, the focus seems to be on appeasing Trump by meeting his demands for increased European defense spending — with the new target set at 5% of GDP.
Flattery will get you far
A text message from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, sent directly to the U.S. president, makes that point clear. Trump promptly brandished it on his social media as yet another triumph of his will. “Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win,” the message reads in a tone suitably flattering and deferential — but without ever mentioning Ukraine.
Flattery is, of course, essential when dealing with Trump. It’s the first rule in the diplomatic playbook. But it’s meant to be a prelude to addressing tough issues — not just a tactic to ensure a summit runs smoothly.
Committing to major spending increases while turning a blind eye to the war.
Yet European leaders are paralyzed by the fear that the summit could unravel, as it did in 2018 during Trump’s first term, when he threatened to pull out of the alliance altogether. Just last week, Trump left the G7 Summit in Canada early, skipping a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had made the trip.
In The Hague, Zelensky was invited to the royal gala dinner last night — but not to today’s working sessions. The message is clear: There should not be even the faintest suggestion that Ukraine may have a foot in the NATO door. That just wouldn’t sit right with a large portion of Trump’s base.
NATO’s paradox
This all leads to the absurd paradox of a military alliance summit committing to major spending increases while deliberately turning a blind eye to the war on its doorstep.
Trump simply decided to look the other way.
Trump’s indulgence toward Russian President Vladimir Putin lies at the heart of this. The American dealmaker thought he could impose peace in Ukraine with a snap of his fingers, and the Russian president took him for a ride.
But instead of responding as he said he would — by supporting Ukraine and levying sanctions against Russia — Trump decided to look the other way. Unlike with Iran, where he showed resolve.
Strong with the weak, weak with the strong? It would seem so.
The responsibility for supporting Ukraine has thus shifted to Europe — both in terms of military aid and new sanctions against Moscow. Quietly, though, so as not to offend Donald Trump. Because, like it or not, the United States will remain Europe’s protector for the foreseeable future — a Europe that failed to organize its own defense in time.
