-Analysis–
After one full week of an unprecedented war between Israel and Iran, political and security experts are circling around the question: “Are we already in a new phase of the conflict?” To answer that, we must take an analytical look at four key elements in this crisis.
The first is whether we are inching toward a ceasefire. Under the current circumstances, cessation of hostilities would be a strategic setback for Israel. If Israel were to back down at this point, the Iranian regime would resume its nuclear bomb program even more boldly.
The only scenarios that could stop Israel are:
• complete surrender of the Tehran regime
• an internal uprising by Iranians
• regime collapse from within.
None of these options seem very likely in the short term. So the likelihood of continued Israeli attacks in coming days and weeks is very high.
Surrender of the Iranian regime?
Anyone familiar with the ideological foundations of political Shiism knows that complete surrender has no place in the vocabulary of the Islamic Republic, and certainly not right now. The regime has managed to survive for 45 years by relying on only about 15% of its wider support base, consisting mainly of financial, security and ideological networks. Surrender would entail the collapse of that core base.
The only scenario that could lead to surrender is a rebellion inside the regime or a security/military coup that ultimately reaches a compromise with the West, in order to preserve the original structure but with a disguised face.
U.S. involvement?
With President Donald Trump back in power, the policy of “America First” and avoiding war has become a priority. Trump’s voter base in the “MAGA” wing of the Republican party are not interested in new military adventures. Democrats also generally oppose regime change in Iran. Trump worries that even an airstrike on Iran could provoke a major response against U.S. bases in the region, forcing him to intervene more broadly (and possibly send in ground troops), a nightmare for any conservative administration.
The only factors that could change the equation are:
• Israel providing credible evidence that the regime is no longer capable of responding;
• or the regime making the mistake of directly attacking American targets, which could bring the U.S. into this conflict.
Unrest inside Iran?
The Islamic Republic regime has invested 40 years of intellectual, financial and structural resources to build one of the most powerful repressive machines in the world. Forces like the Revolutionary Guards, the Basij militia, run by the Guards, and the police, are not only trained but also highly ideological. In their minds, suppressing the people is akin to worship, and being killed in the process, a gateway to heaven.
We are close to a boiling point.
On the other side, Iranians are less wrathful right now and focused on grappling with fatigue, poverty, hopelessness and distrust. Many are not even able to take a simple decision to support the exiled crown prince and prominent opponent, Reza Pahlavi. That is in spite of his being the only real alternative and representing a total break with the regime.
Here, the only factors that might spark a real protest are:
• The people’s inability to meet their basic needs
• Disruption in the chain of command or non-payment of wages to the forces of repression.
Worldcrunch 🗞 Extra!
Elsewhere in the press • French-language, Montreal-based daily Le Devoir spoke with several foreign policy experts about the future of the Iranian regime, in light of Israel’s launching of the war last Friday.
Political science professor Sami Aoun explains that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ultimately wants to overthrow the Iranian regime, as difficult as it may be, a goal that is “not necessarily shared by the United States.” The assassination of Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution and head of the Iranian regime, could increase the chances of a revolt in Iran, he believes. “We can see that the Israelis are trying as much as possible to avoid hitting Iranian civilians. Why? Because they are hoping for a popular uprising.”
Despite what Sami Aoun describes as “a certain fertile ground for regime change in Iran at some point,” he also raises the possibility of a “nationalist surge” among the Iranian population in reaction to Israeli attacks, which could allow Khamenei’s regime to “breathe more easily.” Pierre Pahlavi, professor and director of the Department of Security and International Affairs at the Canadian Forces College in Toronto, adds: “Most Iranians are fed up with the regime, but there would be strong reluctance to accept a regime change orchestrated by a foreign power.”
— Emma Albright (read more about the Worldcrunch method here)
Forecast for the next two weeks
Considering all these factors, a realistic forecast for the next two weeks could be:
• Israel will continue its attacks, probably with greater intensity and with the aim of further weakening the regime’s military structure in Iran.
• The Iranian regime will not enter a full-scale confrontation phase, but may launch sporadic and proxy attacks to send a message of resistance to its supporters inside.
• The likelihood of direct U.S. intervention in this period is very low, unless there is a serious attack on U.S. forces beforehand.
• Inside Iran, the situation will remain calm, but economic and psychological pressures on the people will increase. Should something happen to interrupt the remuneration of the security forces, or if there were a complete shutdown of the Internet, this may increase the likelihood of unrest.
We are close to a boiling point, but neither side is willing yet to completely break the balance — yet there is always the possibility of an unforeseen event that could take the fate out of everyone’s hands.
