Khamenei Jr? Shah Reconciliation? Military Rule? Scenarios For A New Iran

-Analysis-

ROME — The Israeli assault of Iran that began June 13 has shaken the very foundations of an Islamic Republic already riddled with deep internal rifts, both political and generational. But more than the bombs themselves, it is the questions about Iran’s future that are echoing loudest: Who will lead the transition? Who will inherit the power? And what lies ahead for the region’s geopolitical fate?

For months, there had been talk of a possible “handover and signature” by the nation’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: a carefully managed yet opaque transfer of supreme power to his son Mojtaba, a shadowy but pivotal figure within the machinery of theocratic rule.

Would this signal a continuation of the same regime under a younger face? Or is it a desperate attempt to preserve a system that has lost all legitimacy, not just at home but increasingly on the world stage?

The religious elite appear split: some are still loyal to the principle of Velayat-e Faqih (the “guardianship of the Islamic jurist”), while others remain silently critical of its drift toward dynastic, personalized rule.

Military coup on the horizon?

At the same time, Iran’s military apparatus, especially the Revolutionary Guards, has become increasingly autonomous and politically assertive. Many are now asking: has the Revolutionary Guard’s so-called “green coup” already begun? Or is it being quietly prepared behind the scenes?

The rhetoric of “national salvation” could easily be used to justify a de facto takeover by the armed forces, perhaps dressed up as an emergency transition. But history in the Middle East offers plenty of warnings: today’s saviors often become tomorrow’s despots.

It remains to be seen whether Iran’s military leadership truly aims to “save” the country, or merely to save itself from disintegration.

Regime’s end or pivot to new phase?

The Israeli strike sent a message that went beyond the military operation. Tel Aviv struck with such surgical precision, showing it can cripple, if not completely destroy, Iran’s strategic infrastructure. It is also now threatening to assassinate the Supreme Leader.

But even if Israel doesn’t take out Khamenei, the external explosion may ignite an internal one: a flare-up of long-simmering social and ethnic tensions, and the cry for freedom that has been growing within the Iranian people for years. Could this mark the beginning of a new Iran, or will it be just another cycle of repression and unrest?

The Iranian people, who have time and again shown courage and clarity, may now face their most important challenge yet: the fight for self-determination, beyond regional chess games and the strategic ambitions of global powers.

With the military the strongest force in the country, we can expect them ultimately to be in control.

The Islamic regime seems to be heading toward a decisive fork in the road: dynastic succession, military takeover or revolutionary collapse? The coming days and weeks — or even hours — will be critical in determining whether the Israeli attack marks the end of a theocracy to open a new age of freedom. Or is it just a reshuffling of the deck chairs?

Three scenarios

With the military the strongest force in the country, we can expect them ultimately to be in control in this moment of uncertainty and vulnerability. So what will they do? Three scenarios are possible:

Either the generals understand that this is the last chance, and invite back to Iran the exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Shah, starting the path of national reconciliation and the salvation of the homeland.

Or the military falls into the temptation of power and imposes a new crown on the ruins of the Islamic Republic.

Or, again, they pretend to be at peace with the world while behind the closed doors of torture centers they repeat the same old crimes.