-Analysis-
PARIS — The Israeli Prime Minister’s sentence is resolute: killing Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he told ABC News, “would not provoke an escalation. It would end the conflict” with Iran.
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I had already looked at Israel’s war motives — whether or not the state would go so far as seeking regime change in Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu gave a clear answer Monday night: he does not rule out striking Khamenei, the very top of the Iranian power pyramid, as the Supreme Leader has more power than the President in Iran.
This statement is striking on two levels. It speaks volumes about Israel’s sense of its own power, having demonstrated military supremacy over the last four days, to the point of declaring the enemy country’s leader as target. It’s in line with the plan Israel announced from the outset: to exact on Iran the same fate it inflicted on Lebanon’s Hezbollah, whose all-powerful leader, Hassan Nasrallah, it ultimately eliminated.
The second major factor is Israel’s ability to consider the possibility of a successful targeted assassination at this level of power in the first place, without fearing the slightest international consequence.
On Monday, the American press reported that Donald Trump had vetoed Netanyahu’s suggestion that they might seek to eliminate Khamenei. Less than 24 hours later, Netanyahu himself announced the prospect, demonstrating that the American veto was no longer of value. He feels confident and secure enough to proclaim it despite foreign opinion.
The Trump-Netanyahu relationship is particularly relevant at this moment. The U.S. president seemed to waver, to contradict himself, and to follow Netanyahu’s lead in unleashing his all-out war against Iran on Thursday night. This was 48 hours before the resumption of Iranian-American negotiations, where Trump seemed to disapprove of military action. But when the bombing began, he congratulated Israel.
Target: Fordo
Even today, it’s hard to understand where Trump is going. He suggests that negotiation is still possible with Iran over its nuclear program, and that he does not intend to intervene in the conflict as long as American interests are not affected.
It’s Trump, and him alone, who can stop the war. But he’s not doing it, or not yet. Clearly, the Americans are delighted that Iran’s nuclear program has been weakened. The Israelis are expecting more, however, because only the U.S. is in possession of the mega-bomb that could destroy Iran’s buried nuclear center at Fordo.
If we listen to Benjamin Netanyahu, there are no limits to this war, and not even the fate of Khamenei, the successor to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the supreme symbol of the Islamic revolution. But if we listen to Donald Trump, the war may last another three or four days before ending, no doubt on a negotiation with a considerably weakened Iran.
For the time being, Netanyahu is in charge, and he sees no limits to his action in Iran: neither military, with his army’s superiority, nor diplomatic, with an American “cushion” that guarantees him time and impunity. So when he says that Khamenei is a target, we must take him seriously.
