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Geopolitics

Erdogan Exit Scenarios? Where Turkey Fits Between Brazil, Poland — And Putin

Former mayor of Istanbul, Erdogan had once theorized that a victory in the capital meant an easier path to a national victory. Following this theory, having lost by ten points to the Republican People’s Party means an even tougher defeat for the 70-year-old president. Is this the beginning of the end?

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Russia-Ukraine War

Moscow Attack: The Kremlin’s Ukraine Narrative Won’t Make ISIS Go Away

After Friday’s terrorist attack in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to lay blame on Ukraine, even while all signs point to Islamic State terrorists, can’t undo the reality that jihadism remains a major challenge that the Kremlin wishes would just go away.

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In The News

Worldcrunch Magazine #76 — Not Just Putin

March 25 – March 31, 2024

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Peak Putin: Mind Games With The World, Escalation In Ukraine

Celebrating his reelection and the 10th anniversary of the annexation of Crimea on Monday, Vladimir Putin showed that he is not backing down. And he signaled that he will redouble his efforts in the invasion of Ukraine as well as his psychological war with the West.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Siloviki, The Faceless Power Behind Putin’s Veritable Lifetime Reign

In a quarter of a century under the regime of the former KGB agent, members of the Russian security forces have imposed their growing stronghold on politics and the economy. But the Russian presidential election is also an admission of their weakness with their president failing to build a state strong enough to carry on without them.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Beyond Putin: The National Psyche That Fuels Russian Aggression

President Vladimir Putin is just a vessel for a longstanding Russian psychology that is simultaneously expansionist and worried about external threats on the Motherland.

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Geopolitics

Modi, India’s Influencer-In-Chief: A Reelection Campaign Designed Solely For Social Media

In the run-up to India’s general elections this spring, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been showcasing his adventures in social media posts, his preferred method of communication, saturating the digital landscape of a highly connected country — and avoiding hard questions from the press.

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Geopolitics

Why China’s Silence On Geopolitics May Be A Sign Of Trouble To Come

China has recently been discreet over major crises, such as Ukraine and Gaza, focusing its attention and energy on its domestic difficulties, particularly economic ones. Convinced that his country is entering a stormy period, President Xi Jinping is strengthening his hold over the nation, but may

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This Happened

This Happened — March 4: When Putin Returned To The Presidency

Updated March 4, 2024 at 12:20 p.m. Vladimir Putin was re-elected as president of Russia on this day in 2012. Why was Putin’s re-election in 2012 controversial?  Putin’s re-election in 2012 was controversial due to allegations of election fraud and voter intimidation. The opposition also claimed that the government used its control over the media […]

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Geopolitics Ideas

Navalny And Assange: Exposing Crimes Of The Powerful Like No “Ordinary” Journalists Could

As the world mourns the Putin critic and the WikiLeaks founder faces extradition to the U.S., Spanish journalist Juan Carlos Laviana argues that while the men may not be “ordinary” journalists, they both used investigative means and technological capacity to shine a light on those in power. And they were right.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Putin’s Nuclear Threats: Is This Time Different?

Three days after Emmanuel Macron’s statement on deploying troops to Ukraine, Putin warned that such a move could provoke nuclear war. It’s a serious threat that has regularly resurfaced over the past two years. So far, we’re all still here.

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Russia-Ukraine War

A Christian Martyr Too? Navalny’s Political Courage Was Also An Act Of Faith

With his funeral under way today, many are discovering the Putin critic’s Orthodox faith — which he did not speak much about. His very personal take on Christianity, although separated from his moral vision, paints him as the polar opposite of the president, who only believes in fear and terror.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Putin’s Moldova Flex: Why The Time May Be Ripe For Russia To Take Transnistria

The authorities of the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldava have asked for “protection” from Russia, which has been quick to respond. It is a blatantly “engineered-from-scratch” crisis in a region bordering Ukraine. This tiny territory may be the next place on the world map to watch.

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Geopolitics Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

Putin, Navalny And Russia’s Bogus Election Campaign

Why join in on a presidential debate when you can start a war or eliminate political opponents. That’s how to get your “policy” prescription across. But in a sham of a democracy, you need elections and you need debates — with the comfort of knowing the other candidates will make your talking points for you.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Why Macron Blindsided His Allies About Sending Troops To Ukraine

The French president’s suggestion that Western troops could be sent to Ukraine, took Western allies by surprise. Yet Macron wanted to send a double message at a key moment — to ally and adversary alike.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Two Years On, Europeans Have Lost Faith In A Ukrainian Victory

As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, results of a survey suggest that only one European out of ten thinks that Ukraine will come out of this war with a victory. While their support has not shifted towards Russia, the poll results give an insight into how fatigue is playing in citizens’ minds — and what European governments have to put up with if they want to continue supporting an expensive war.

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Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

Alexei Navalny Had A Complicated Legacy On Ukraine

Longtime Putin critic Alexei Navalny has died in prison at the age of 47, sparking outrage inside and outside of Russia. While widely esteemed for his courage challenging the Kremlin, the Russian politician’s views on Ukraine were more ambiguous. Here’s a commentary by a Ukrainian writer after a documentary last year about his struggle won an Academy Award.

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In The News

Worldcrunch Magazine #71 — Kremlin Estate

February 19 – February 25, 2024

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Why Estonia’s Fears Of A Russian Invasion Are All Too Real

With Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas suddenly appearing on Moscow’s wanted list, both the past and present offer plenty of evidence that the small Baltic nation — with 40% Russian speakers — could be the next neighbor after Ukraine in the Kremlin’s crosshairs.

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Economy Russia-Ukraine War

London-Vienna, Caribbean-Côte d’Azur: How A Putin Crony Funds A Western Life Of Luxury

Andrei Akimov runs state-controlled Gazprombank and is part of the Russian leader’s inner circle, aligned with the condemnation of the “collective West” conflict. He also oversees a web of luxury holdings across the same West, thanks to schemes to hide behind the names of relatives.

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Russia-Ukraine War War in Ukraine

Good Putin, Bad Vlad? Unpacking A False Rags-To-Evil Narrative

Look back over the past two decades, and you’ll see Vladimir Putin has always been the man revealed by the Ukraine invasion, an evil and sinister dictator. The Russian leader just manages to mask it well.

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Russia-Ukraine War

“Rossia,” Putin’s Whitewashed HQ For An Epic Non-Campaign For Reelection

Vladimir Putin is not campaigning for the March 17 presidential election, but his message is on display at the vast “Rossia” exhibition in Moscow, which aims “to show Russians their modern Russia, a country they can be proud of.”

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Russian Opposition: How Yekaterina Duntsova Can Take On Putin Without An Election

A former journalist and city councilor, Yekaterina Duntsova, 40, has suddenly gained surprising popularity among Russians opposed to Vladimir Putin and its offensive in Ukraine. She explains why barring her from the March presidential election won’t stop her campaign.

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Geopolitics Ideas Russia-Ukraine War War in Ukraine

Should We Even Be Talking With Putin?

The leaders of key EU countries have been on the phone with Vladimir Putin since the war in Ukraine began. Weighing the costs, benefits…and morals…of leaving the door open to a man who brutally invaded a sovereign nation — and taking Munich 1938 as a starting point.

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Geopolitics

How Russia And China Will Try To Exploit The Houthi Red Sea Blockade

Houthi rebels are now blocking the strategic Red Sea, by striking or seizing merchant ships, while also attempting to launch rockets into Israeli territory. This has sparked a strong response from the U.S and Britain, escalating a situation that could impact global security in major ways, with competing powers ready to cash in.

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In The News

Magazine #66 — Where Russia Plants Its Flag

January 15 – January 21, 2024

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Russia-Ukraine War

Why Ukraine Is Our Spanish Civil War — More Than Ever

Nearly two years on, the Ukraine war is confirming to be one of those decisive moments where history calls on us to respond. The Spanish Civil War was one too, and despite its obvious differences, there are lessons about the failure a century ago that should make us redouble our support for Kyiv.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Maduro’s Putin Playbook? Why Venezuela May Try A Land Grab In Guyana

Is Venezuela’s President Maduro renewing the country’s long-standing claim to a big part of neighboring Guyana to distract from his unpopularity at home, to postpone next year’s general elections, or to nab some of Guyana’s rocketing oil wealth?

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Why NATO Should Take Putin’s “Pig” Threats Against Latvia Very Seriously

In the Ukraine war, Russia’s military spending is as high as ever. Now the West is alarmed because the Kremlin leader is indirectly hinting at a possible attack on Latvia, a NATO member. It is a reminder of a growing danger to Europe.

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Geopolitics

Putin In The Middle East, A Chilling Reminder Of The Power He Still Holds

Defying an ICC arrest warrant, Russian President Vladimir Putin is on a one-day foray to UAE and Saudi Arabia to display his role in shaping the geopolitical and energy landscape — and to make the world forget about the Ukraine war just a little bit more.

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Russia-Ukraine War Society

How War And Censorship Are Killing Russian Rap Culture, One Beat At A Time

Censorship in Russia has increased rapidly over the last couple of decades, especially since their invasion of Ukraine. Russian rap, which has often challenged the politics and society of Russia, has become even more censored than before, even causing some rappers to emigrate.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Putinism Without Putin? USSR 2.0? Clean Slate? How Kremlin Succession Will Play Out

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, political commentators have consistently returned to the question of Putin’s successor. Russia expert Andreas Umland foreshadows a potentially tumultuous transition, resulting in a new power regime. Whether this is more or less democratic than the current Putinist system, is difficult to predict.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Putin’s 2024 Reelection Will Be A Weapon In The War In Ukraine — It Could Also Backfire

A report Monday from Reuters tells us what all knew: Vladimir Putin will seek a fifth term in Russia’s March 2024 presidential elections. But he needs a high turnout and overwhelming support to seal the legitimacy of his war in Ukraine.

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Geopolitics Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

Can Russia Ever Learn To Live Without Its Imperial Ambitions?

Russian ambitions to expand its empire have existed for centuries. But are they doomed to be this way forever? Janusz Onyszkiewicz, the former defense minister of Poland, digs into the history — and the future.

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Geopolitics

Russia And Iran: At Least One Is Ready For Middle East Escalation

What happens next in the Middle East, including a possible expansion of the war at the Israeli-Lebanon border, will be determined by choices that are made in different capitals. Keep your eye on Tehran.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Kyiv Reality Check: What Ukraine’s Friends Say Out Loud — And Whisper To Each Other

Europe’s foreign ministers traveled together to Kyiv yesterday to reaffirm their support for Ukraine. It is necessary after the first signs of “fatigue” in Western support, from a Polish about-face to the victory of a pro-Russian prime minister in Slovakia.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Pride Or Politics? Why Poland Suddenly Turned Its Back On Ukraine

Poland has taken President Zelensky’s criticism at the UN very badly, and has decided to not supply new arms to Ukraine. One man in the Kremlin couldn’t be more pleased.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Russia Flirts With The End Of “Mutually Assured Destruction”

Retired Major-General Alexander Vladimirov wrote the Russian “war bible.” His words have weight. Now he has declared that the use of nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine is inevitable, citing a justification that consigns the principle of deterrence to the history books.

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Economy Russia-Ukraine War

Russia’s Dependence On China Is Deep And Wide — It May Also Be Irreversible

Russia is digging itself into a hole as it becomes increasingly dependent on China, as a result of international sanctions and isolation. This shifting dynamic, analysts argue, is bound to have ripple effects around the world

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In The News

How Russia And Belarus Are Cracking Down On Exiles — And A Passport Fix To Fight Back

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko is making it impossible for citizens who’ve fled the country to renew their passports, which may make some effectively stateless. What are some possible solutions?

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