-Analysis-
PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron launched a dizzying debate at a late-night press conference on Monday, when he floated the idea of sending Western troops to Ukraine. Yesterday’s reactions, in France, Europe and, of course, Russia, clearly show that the issue is explosive. It concerns war and peace in Europe, existential issues par excellence.
On Tuesday, the Elysee presidential palace made a number of clarifications necessitated by the Macron’s cryptic remarks and the criticism they provoked. First, it is not a question of sending combat troops to face the Russians, but of bomb-disposal experts, trainers and equipment maintenance personnel who could be stationed in Ukraine. No entry into the war, then, but another step forward in a commitment that has grown steadily since the Russian invasion two years ago.
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The second fundamental point is that no decision has yet been made, but as Macron said on Monday evening, “nothing is excluded.” The question then is: why did he speak publicly about this, at the risk of incurring scathing reactions from those who are against it, such as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, known for his prudence, or, more likely, attacks from Moscow ?
Macron’s two messages
Macron wanted to send two messages. The first was to Russia: President Vladimir Putin must understand that Europe will do whatever is necessary to prevent him from winning in Ukraine. Putin believes, not without reason, that everything is going his way: the military balance of power, the paralysis and rise of former President Donald Trump in the U.S., and a Europe too accustomed to living under the American umbrella. He had to send a signal that Europe was not giving up.
He was accused of complacency toward Putin in the first months of the war
The second message was to Europeans themselves. Since Trump’s offhand statement on NATO, those in Europe who swear by American protection have moved between stupefaction and panic.
Since 2017, Macron has been advocating European strategic autonomy, and today he is presenting himself as the leader of those who want to build it, at the risk of offending his much more cautious partners. It’s a reverse situation, as he was accused of complacency toward Putin in the first months of the war, and is now being criticized for going too far.
A preview
In Europe, there were many critical reactions, as if France were taking the risk of war with Russia. As always, French initiatives in Europe are received with certain reserve, even though many recognize that they deserve to exist.
This impromptu summit in Paris, held after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit 10 days ago, was proof of this: at a critical moment, it was very operational in nature on the subject of aid to Ukraine.
The small shock wave that has occurred over the past 24 hours gives an idea of what will happen if Europe has to do without American support in less than a year’s time. But it must start to think for itself. Over the past two years, Europe has made significant strides in the field of defense that seemed unthinkable before, but it is still far from speaking with one voice when the state of the world demands it.
