-Analysis-
PARIS — The figure is a terrible message for Ukrainians: only 10% of Europeans think Ukraine can still win the war against Russia. This does not mean that their opinion has shifted in favor of Russia: on the contrary, the majority of the continent still largely support the Ukrainian cause. But the accumulation of bad news for the Kyiv army has had an effect on Europeans.
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This figure appears in a survey commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Relations, an independent think tank, and was made public on the eve of the second anniversary of the Russian invasion. This war will enter its third year, and public opinion is legitimately questioning a conflict with a heavy cost in human lives, and also a heavy cost in military and financial support.
The reasons behind this gloomy prediction are easy to understand: the Ukrainian counter-offensive failed last year, the Russian army is holding on and is even capable of breakthroughs, like the fresh capture of the town of Avdiivka.
The week-long political procrastination in Europe over aid to Ukraine, and even worse in the United States, have also played a role.
Berlin and Paris aid
According to the survey, most people in Europe now believe that the war will end with a compromise, albeit one that is still to be defined.
The current challenge is to help Ukraine find itself in a better position should a compromise be made.
This shift in opinion goes against the position of European governments who not only have just agreed on significant aid to Ukraine, but are discussing ways and means of continuing to help the country in case of a U.S. defection.
Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Berlin and Paris last week to sign bilateral security treaties was even an opportunity to renew a promise of stronger support than ever.
French President Emmanuel Macron, in particular, had some very harsh words for Putin’s Russia, which has become, he said, “a methodical actor in the destabilization of the world.” This tougher stance is no coincidence: France, like other European countries, has noted increased aggressiveness on the part of Russian services, in terms of disinformation, cyber-attacks and personal attacks.
How to justify supporting Ukraine further?
The current situation in Ukraine worries military experts. The Ukrainian army might not have collapsed, but a balance of power has become more favorable to Russia. Without a change in the scale of military aid, or even a paradigm shift, the situation will not reverse.
It is obviously difficult to establish if public opinion is not in favor of it, or no longer believes in it. There is a risk of disengagement, further fueled by political forces favorable to a Russian victory.
It’s a dilemma for Ukraine’s leaders who have little choice but to plead with their allies for more aid; it is also a dilemma for European leaders who must justify to their citizens the large sums devoted to a war that they consider lost.
When Macron repeats “Russia must not win this war”, the echo he gets from public opinion is that Ukraine cannot win it either. The current challenge is therefore to help Ukraine get out of this dangerous impasse, to find itself in a better position should a compromise be made.
