-Analysis-
PARIS — Ten years ago, Russia annexed Crimea, which had been part of Ukraine since 1991. In the preceding weeks, little green men — that’s what the Russian soldiers wearing unmarked green army uniforms were called — had taken control of the peninsula. It was the first blow in what, two years ago, became the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrated this anniversary on Monday, which coincided with his reelection the day before with results that resembled a plebiscite: 87% of the popular vote. It doesn’t matter if it’s true, the image of Putin speaking in Red Square surrounded by young people was grand, a “Putinian” moment in the form of a challenge.
This challenge started a decade ago, when Putin decided to make Ukraine, and the West, pay for the pro-European turn of the Maidan Uprising in Kyiv in late 2013. Putin swallowed Crimea and watched the reactions: cries of outrage, symbolic sanctions, and private comments by Western leaders that Crimea was de facto Russian and that Putin would stop there. He did not stop there.
Crimean coincidence
Putin did not organize the elections on the same date of the annexation of Crimea by coincidence: everything in Russia is now linked to the war in Ukraine, including political rituals. The message of the double events yesterday, the election victory and the Crimean annexation anniversary, is clear: Russia will not back down.
One little phrase gave an idea of what is to come.
Symbolically re-legitimized by a guaranteed victory, what will Putin do with this conquering moment? He will amplify his strategy that is both military and psychological. With its war economy, Russia is taking full advantage of its size and centralization, at a time when Europe, which has not adopted this strategy, is struggling to provide Ukraine with military support.
But it is especially in the psychological war that Putin can surprise us. In his victory speech, one little phrase gave an idea of what is to come: Putin suggested that France, which he threatened with nuclear war eight days ago, could play a role in peace negotiations with Ukraine.
A psychological war strategy
Far from announcing peace, this declaration plays on internal debates in France: Putin knows very well that there are forces within the French political class advocating for negotiation with Russia. It doesn’t matter that the conditions of this negotiation do not exist: what is important is to fuel this debate by suggesting that negotiation is possible.
Some European leaders are even speculating about a Russian ceasefire to push this idea forward; that war will resume at the first pretext and attempt to take Odessa, the coveted Ukrainian port on the Black Sea.
In fact, we are moving even further from peace, as Putin stalls for time until the U.S. election on Nov. 5. A victory for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump would change the situation for good, by weakening NATO.
The lesson of Crimea is that Putin is strongest when his adversaries are weak.
