-Analysis-
PARIS — They’re called frozen conflicts, meaning they no longer are being fought, but nothing has been settled. And, yes, frozen conflicts can be unfrozen at any time.
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Transnistria is the location of one of these confrontations, a small part of Moldava that seceded in 1992, fought a brief war and has lived for three decades with some 1,500 Russian soldiers on its soil. Alongside it, Moldova, a former Soviet republic with a population of less than 3 million, is struggling to build a democracy and make its way toward Europe. All this in a territory bordering Ukraine on one side, and Romania, thus the EU, on the other.
On Wednesday, the temperature suddenly flared up, in a way that seemed totally guided by Moscow. In the first act, the authorities of Transnistria, a Russian-speaking, pro-Russian republic, asked for Russia’s protection from Moldova, citing the threat of “genocide”.
In the second act, Moscow said that “protecting the interests of the residents of Transnistria, our compatriots, is one of our priorities.” That was all it took to create an international crisis, and make Moldovans fear the worst.
A sudden crisis
This affair has all the ingredients of what happened in Ukraine: a Russian-speaking minority considered by Moscow as “compatriots,” as we heard in the communiqué; a courageous Moldovan president, Maia Sandu, who has made a determined pro-European choice — indeed, the EU has recognized Moldova’s status as a candidate country — and finally, a geopolitical vacuum with a country that enjoys no protection whatsoever.
The current context of war in Ukraine, and the Russian presidential election in March, could tip the balance
Does Russian President Vladimir Putin really intend to annex Transnistria and its 500,000 inhabitants? Moscow would kill two birds with one stone: it would create a new hotbed of tension on Ukraine’s southwestern flank, not far from the Ukrainian port of Odessa; and it would further weaken Moldova, the West’s little protégé.
Russia has never taken such a step in its 30 years of presence, but the current context of war in Ukraine, and perhaps also the Russian presidential election in March, could tip the balance.
Annexation in view?
Needless to say, if Russia were to decide to swallow Transnistria, Moldova would have little means of opposing it, and the West would be powerless to react. It would be of the same order as the annexation of Crimea in 2014, minus the symbolic and historical dimension.
For Putin, annexation would be one more signal that he is totally impervious to Western protests.
But for Putin, it would be one more signal that he is totally impervious to Western protests, while the United States is unable to help Ukraine, and Europe is struggling. The divisions that emerged over French President Emmanuel Macron’s statement on Monday on sending troops to Ukraine do nothing to dissuade Putin.
There is no reason for Transnistria to become the focus of an international crisis. With few resources — in the hands of a mafia clan — its main claim to fame is its soccer club, which continues to play in the Moldovan championship, and therefore in European competitions.
But the worst is not inevitable, and a thawed conflict can just as easily be frozen again: Putin is playing with Western nerves.
