Erdogan Exit Scenarios? Where Turkey Fits Between Brazil, Poland — And Putin

-Analysis-

PARIS — There was an “Autumn of the Patriarch” feel in Turkey on Sunday evening, to borrow the title of the Gabriel García Márquez novel. In this case, the “patriarch” is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who at 70 years old suffered the most severe political defeat of his long career.

Paradoxically, the setback in the municipal elections came just 10 months after his comeback reelection victory as president. After two decades in power, that 2023 performance showed that the leader of the Islamo-conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) should never be written off too quickly.

Still, the defeat of the AKP’s candidates on Sunday, in Istanbul and Ankara, and in many other cities, including their Anatolian stronghold, is all the more significant because of the role of the Turkish president. In Istanbul, where the Erdogan personally campaigned, his candidate lost by 10 points to the incumbent mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP).

A former mayor of Istanbul, Erdogan had once theorized that winning in this city was the key to a national victory: the setback is even tougher.

These are obviously local elections, not national ones, and their significance should not be overestimated. Nonetheless, they do provide an insight into how power can waiver and eventually fall in an authoritarian country.

Democracy’s opponent now falters

Erdogan belongs to the “strongman” category, those figures who undermine democracy and try to reduce it to appearances. In two decades, he has attacked press freedom; obstructed parliamentary opposition — one of its main leaders, Selahattin Dermitas, has been in prison since 2016; purged the army, judiciary and education ministry; and broken civil society — the famous philanthropist and activist Osman Kavala has been in detention for seven years.

We must draw a distinction between a regime that has become dictatorial and the authoritarian or illiberal

And yet, Erdogan can stumble, as he has in the municipal elections that herald the end of his reign — even though he still has four years left in power. A number of factors were at play. First is the economy, with inflation at 60% and the errors of his economic policy. Another reason is the wear and tear of power, and the corruption that goes with it.

As a matter of fact, we must draw a distinction between a regime that has become dictatorial, such as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s, which now faces elections without the slightest risk (like the March presidential election); and authoritarian or “illiberal” regimes that leave leeway in the political arena.

Autumn of Erdogan’s power?

Poland, conquered by the ultra-conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) in 2015, followed Erdogan’s method, taking control of the media and putting a stranglehold on the judiciary, which were supposed to ensure the party’s longevity. But last October, they were defeated by the liberals led by former European leader Donald Tusk.

Last year in Brazil, it was far-right incumbent Jaïr Bolsonaro, with his poor record, who lost his reelection to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and attempted a coup to maintain his position as president.

International pressure — even Europe’s pressure on Poland yesterday and on Hungary today — maintains democratic leeway that leaves open the possibility of an alternation. That is perhaps what the victory of Turkey’s CHP opposition party announces: an “autumn,” to use Garcia Marquez’s metaphor, foreshadowing the possible end of Erdogan’s power.