-Analysis-
PARIS — How seriously should we take warnings from Estonia about the Russian threat?
First point to know about Estonia: the country of 1.3 million inhabitants shares 300 kilometers of border with Russia. Second point: this small Baltic state was forcibly incorporated into the USSR in 1940, and only regained its independence in 1991.
[shortcode-Subscribe-to-Ukraine-daily-box]
Taken together, Estonians have good reasons to worry when Moscow shows its fangs.
The latest act of this play is about Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas whom the Kremlin has just put on a wanted list, alongside other Baltic personalities. They are all accused of “damaging” monuments to the memory of Soviet soldiers.
This would be laughable if the context wasn’t so dramatic, with the war in Ukraine which will soon mark its second anniversary; and if it didn’t resonate with Kallas’ own personal story. Her great-grandmother, grandmother, and mother, when she was still a baby, were deported to Siberia in March 1949, 75 years ago.
Thus the news that she’s on Moscow’s wanted list rings with ominous overtones.
Russian army, Russian rhetoric
Estonia sees itself as a frontline nation, convinced that Russia is preparing for war with NATO in the coming decade, and that it should get ready for it now.
Estonia has 40% Russian speakers.
The Estonian secret services base their forecast both on the restructuring of the Russian army and on Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric laced with regret and vengeance, obsessed with the collapse of the USSR and the Russian sphere of influence. Estonia, we should remember, includes 40% Russian speakers.
It would seem there are still not enough reasons for Russia to take the risk of a war against NATO countries, a military alliance with combined means far superior to Moscow’s, except… except that there are several unknowns: first, the outcome of the Ukrainian war, which Putin can still hope to win; and the wider international context, as we saw how Donald Trump’s statement last weekend could destroying the credibility of NATO’s collective security.
Doomsayer or dead?
So Estonia is getting ready: this year its military spending has been increased to 3.2% of its gross domestic product, far above the 2% objective set by NATO. The country is also building some 600 underground bunkers along the Russian border.
Prime Minister Kallas obviously has little to fear from this Russian wanted notice which serves only as intimidation and positioning; and as a response, also, to the indictment of Vladimir Putin by the International Criminal Court.
What poses as a more serious and immediate threat to Estonia is the risk of a hybrid war led by Russia. In 2007, after the dismantling of a monument to the glory of Soviet soldiers in the capital city Tallinn, Estonia was the victim of the world’s first veritable cyberwar, with continuous attacks that paralyzed the country for three days. Since then, NATO’s cyberwarfare center has been established in Tallinn.
But most of all, Estonia’s mission is to alert the rest of Europe, after witnessing its disbelief until February 24, 2022.
Kaja Kallas has described as “naive” the efforts made by French President Emmanuel Macron to coax the Russian president before and even after the invasion of Ukraine.
Better doomsayer than dead: this is probably a somewhat brutal summary of Estonian philosophy. But it’s also Estonian history.
