Why China’s Silence On Geopolitics May Be A Sign Of Trouble To Come

-Analysis-

PARIS — There is something puzzling about China. The country has become the world’s second largest economic and military power, with a presence on every continent, and the world’s largest diplomatic network, yet the country is silent — or inaudible, which amounts to the same thing — on the major international crises of the moment.

We don’t hear China speak about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear agitations, when it once asked him not to wield this supreme weapon. Last year, China turned a deaf ear to French President Emmanuel Macron’s requests to pressure its Russian friend to end the war in Ukraine, while taking care not to become drawn into the conflict.

Nor do we hear China on the Israel-Hamas war, beyond the declarations needed to be well seen in the global south; nor on Yemen’s Houthis’ missile attacks in the Red Sea, even though China’s economic interests are concerned. Many of the threatened ships are loaded with products “made in China”.

This passivity runs counter to China’s assertion of superpower status in recent years. The explanation undoubtedly lies within China.

Preparing for a storm

China is going through a difficult period. Its economy has slowed notably, and has failed to take off again after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions more than a year ago. There’s a real estate crisis, regional debt, a marginalized private sector, a flight of capital and talent, cautious foreign investors, etc. All these factors are affecting national and international confidence.

The double parliamentary session that ended yesterday in Beijing did little to change the situation. Prime Minister Li Qiang promised 5% growth this year, as he did last year, prompting some skepticism. In any case, it’s far from the 12 or 13% of the 2000s, in the catch-up period, with certain social impact, notably unemployment among young graduates.

Xi Jinping seems convinced that Chinese-American tensions will worsen.

But above all, it’s as if China is preparing for a storm. There is a tightening of power around the already powerful President Xi Jinping. The Prime Minister’s press conference that was to close the parliamentary session has been cancelled: It was the only one of the year.

A text adopted during the session reinforces the Communist Party’s authority over the government, which is reduced to “implementing the decisions of the Central Committee.” China has once again become a one party state: The debates of the 2000s on the separation of powers are now a thing of the past.

Introverted — and unpredictable

Xi seems convinced that Chinese-American tensions will worsen, especially with the possible victory of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. It was Trump who started the commercial and technological war, followed by incumbent President Joe Biden, a rare subject of consensus in the U.S.

This introverted China is not good news for the world.

To prepare for a possible economic or even military confrontation in Taiwan or the South China Sea, Xi wants to be sure his country is well-managed. He has recently purged the upper echelons of his army, strengthened the grip of the Communist Party, which has almost 100 million members, and ordered administrations to stop using foreign software and to seek technical autonomy.

This introverted China, led by a man with complete power who is preparing for the worst, is a sign of global unpredictability and instability — and is not good news for the world.